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Vulnerability of Mangroves and Fisherfolk213interactions between phenomena and processes.Nevertheless, considering that responses to theimpacts of climate change will consist primarily ofindividual responses to day-to-day changes on alocal scale, there is a need for this type of study tohave a multiscale perspective which can be appliedto the analysis of adaptive capacity on the level ofthe communities (Dolan & Walker 2004).Therefore, the proposal for working with alocal case study as the starting point is based on theidea that the information to be collected can form thebasis for a bottom-up analysis aimed at elucidatingsome of these interactions, contributing with studiesof global change, which have usually focused onglobal scale models as the starting point, thenextrapolating to the regional and local levels(Wilbanks & Kates 1999). With a focus on the localcontext, extrapolations could work on the oppositedirection, emerging from comparisons betweendifferent communities – for example, usingproximity to no-take protected areas as theindependent factor – or even between differentsocieties, comparing the results of the small-scalestudy with similar realities in other countries – forexample, where artisanal fisherfolk and mangrovesmay coexist under different conservation policies.These comparisons would aim on identifyingthose characteristics of communities and theirenvironments that contribute to enhancing orlowering vulnerabilities, and the elements of theadaptation strategies that turn out to be moreefficient (Smit & Wandel 2006). This would resultin scientific explanations of the specific realities, butnot necessarily on guidelines that could beuniversally applied to the formulation of policies,because the great variety of social and ecologicalcontexts makes it difficult to develop homogeneousmanagement solutions.Supported by this logical background, wepropose herein a research framework to assess thevulnerability to climate change of mangroves andfisherfolk. Using the case study of the ParanaguáEstuarine Complex in southern Brazil as an examplewe further include in the proposed methodologyindicators to analyze the impacts of biodiversityconservation actions, especially no-take PAs, on thisvulnerability. Following this perspective, theframework aims to understand how fisherfolkrespond to changes in the status of the assets(biophysical, cultural, political and institutional) onwhich they base their livelihoods, and if this status isaffected by environmental changes or changes inaccess and entitlements to these assets, specificallyas a result of climate change and the implementationof no-take PAs.Specific steps in the methodology include:(a) Evaluation of the vulnerability of mangroves toclimate change, especially regarding their exposureand sensitivity to sea-level rise, and their adaptivecapacity; (b) Evaluation of the vulnerability offisherfolk populations to climate change,considering the exposure of villages to sea-level riseand extreme climatic events, their position inrelation to no-take PAs, and the elements thatenhance or diminish their adaptive capacity; and (c)Analysis of the effects of no-take PAs on thesevulnerabilities, through impacts on sensitivity andadaptive capacity of both fisherfolk and mangroves.Such an approach can also be useful to analyzeregional biodiversity conservation policies regardingtheir adequacy to deal with climate change relateddynamics, aiming to identify how they can beadapted to contribute to building adaptive capacity,both of mangroves and fisherfolk, to respond tothese changes.To achieve these objectives, we propose ananalysis of vulnerability in two sections,corresponding to two different scales (regional andlocal) and considering the main components ofvulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptivecapacity. By analyzing the components ofvulnerability in different situations we aim tounderstand which elements of the system are directlyaffected by change, being it regulatory,environmental, social or economic (Tuler et al.2008), but with an emphasis on the impacts ofexisting PAs on the factors that conditionvulnerability.Preliminary steps in the research projectshould include the definition of the spatial andtemporal scales for the study, consideringbiophysical and socioeconomic criteria, and the timescale in which management decisions are taken;collection of information on the biophysicalenvironment and on socioeconomic and culturalcharacteristics of the area; identification of specificrules and policies that affect the area; and, choosingthe specific sites for detailed data collection,according to the population, ecosystems and policiesof interest (Harvey et al. 1999).We divide the analysis according to the threecomponents of vulnerability and the threesubsystems being considered: social (fisherfolk),natural (mangroves) and social-ecological (representingthe interaction between the other twosubsystems; in our case study, it concerns mainly thefisheries production system, or the patterns ofutilization of natural resources by coastalpopulations). It should also be considered thatfactors influencing vulnerability can be both socialPan-American Journal of Aquatic Sciences (2010), 5(2): 205-223