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Technical Note - Bimports to GDP, rate of growth ofpopulation, the rate of growth of workingage population (15–64 years), whether thecountry was landlocked, quality ofinstitutions, whether located in tropicalregions, life expectancy at birth in 1980and the rate of growth of lagged per capitaincome. The sources of this data includedthe World Development Indicatorsdatabase, 20 the Penn World Tables, 21 Barro-Lee database on education indicators,Human Development Reports for variousyears, and Gallup and Sachs (2000).Our empirical approach was to estimatethe following equation, the same asequation (1) in Bloom and Mahal (1997,p.112), and equation (5) in Bloom andWilliamson (1998, p.431) after including aterm for AIDS.(16) Y i= α + βAIDS i+ X iπ + ε i(i=1,2, ..., N).Here Y iis the rate of growth of real incomeper capita, AIDS iis the average annualincrease in the cumulative adultprevalence of AIDS (the average annualincrease in the number of AIDS cases overthe estimation period, taken as aproportion of the population aged 15–64years in 1998), X iis a vector of variablesthat influence economic growth and ε iareindependently and identically distributederror terms, each with zero mean; α, βand π are parameters to be estimated. Amajor goal of our analysis is to obtain aconsistent estimate of the coefficient ofthe AIDS variable, β.The results of estimation of equation (1)by ordinary least squares, given the findingboth in Bloom and Mahal (1997) andBonnel (2000) of there being no statisticalevidence of a reverse causality going fromgrowth of real income per capita toHIV/AIDS. Estimation of equation (1) byinstrumental variable methods (resultsnot reported here) confirmed these earlierfindings. The estimation method does notrely on panel data methods and thus isopen to the methodological objectionsnoted previously. This is proposed to berectified in future work, as more HIVprevalence data becomes available. Theresults as reported here are also open tothe objection that they may becontaminated by the effects of classicalmeasurement error in the AIDS variable,which can influence the coefficient tobecoming statistically insignificant. Thisis more readily addressed by the use of IVmethods. However, as noted previously,the use of IV methods does not influencethe main results of this paper. Anotheraspect of the estimation method (for bothBloom and Williamson and Bloom andMahal specifications) is that thepopulation growth rate variable has beenadjusted to compensate for any AIDSdeaths that may have occurred. Doing soraises the “adjusted” rate of populationgrowth over that actually observed. Thisadjustment permits the coefficient of theAIDS variable to be interpreted as the sumof the direct effect of AIDS on growth ofreal income per capita, plus any indirecteffect on growth of real income per capita,working via the impact of AIDS onpopulation growth.Regional Human Development ReportHIV/AIDS and Development in South Asia 2003 177
Technical Note - BTable T1Human development trends in South Asia, by countryCountryAnnual rate Annual rate Annual rate Annual rate Annual rateof growth of growth of growth of growth of growthHDI (%) GDP per Life Adult literacyreedom House1990-99 capita (%) expectancy rate(%) Index (%)1990–99 1980–99 1980–99 1980–2000Afghanistan N.A. N.A. 0.71 N.A. 0.00Bangladesh 1.42 2.99 1.19 1.76 0.77Bhutan N.A. 3.16 N.A. N.A. 1.32India 1.26 3.73 0.79 1.70 0.00Iran 1.14 2.31 0.89 2.16 0.92Maldives N.A. N.A. 1.00 0.34 0.48Nepal 1.63 2.27 1.02 3.04 -2.23Pakistan 1.36 1.41 0.67 2.51 -0.43Sri Lanka 0.62 3.84 0.39 0.37 1.70Note: N.A. indicates not availableSource: Author’s calculations using World Bank, 2000 data.Table T2(a)HIV/AIDS and the Human Development Index, 1980-99, Ordinary Least SquaresRegressors Human Development Index 1999(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)Constant 0.04(0.04) 0.02(0.05) 0.06(0.03) -0.004(0.036) 0.02(0.04)HDI80 1.17(0.15) 1.20(0.20) 1.22(0.11) 1.41(0.13) 1.35(0.14)HDI80*HDI80 -0.17(0.12) -0.17(0.16) -0.25(0.09) -0.39(0.11) -0.34(0.11)HIV prevalence 1998(per 100 population -0.0043 -0.0045aged 15–64 in 1998) (0.0016) (0.0016)Average annualincrease incumulative AIDS -0.10cases 1980-98 (0.02)(per 100 populationaged 15–64 in 1998)Number ofobservations 93 67 93 67 67R-squared 0.957 0.966 0.974 0.983 0.984Source: Author’s calculations. Heteroskedasticity-corrected standard errors reported in parentheses.Regional Human Development Report178 HIV/AIDS and Development in South Asia 2003
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It is now well accepted that HIV/AI
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© United Nations Development Progr
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OverviewGlobally, the Human Develop
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AcknowledgementsCombating HIV/AIDS
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The TeamHDRC: K. Seeta Prabhu, Sura
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ContentsCHAPTER 1Introduction1.1 Th
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Contents3.2 African AIDS is not a s
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GlossaryAIDSAcquired Immuno-deficie
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Introduction2Regional Human Develop
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Introductioncases, the region has t
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IntroductionAlthough theHIV/AIDS in
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IntroductionBox 1.2Human developmen
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IntroductionBox 1.3Millennium Devel
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The HIV/AIDS Epidemics of South Asi
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSsupport an
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSnumber of
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSTable 4.2I
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSReforms co
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSSource: WH
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSBox 4.16Th
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSBox 4.17Hu
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSnuisance.
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Human Rights and HIV/AIDSand autono
Page 132 and 133: The Way orwardRegional Human Develo
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Page 138 and 139: The Way orwarddevelopment, divert s
Page 140 and 141: The Way orwardProviding ARV treatme
Page 142 and 143: The Way orward5.5 Adolescent Sexual
Page 144 and 145: The Way orwardwomen’s lives are t
Page 146 and 147: The Way orwardcomprehensive guidanc
Page 148 and 149: The Way orwardInvolving religious l
Page 150 and 151: The Way orwardconcerns and extended
Page 152 and 153: The Way orwardlInvolvement of gover
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Page 157 and 158: Endnotes17 Bandhu, 200218 UNAIDS/WH
Page 159 and 160: Endnotes56 Pradhan, 199857 Malla, 2
Page 161 and 162: Endnoteson Economic, Social and Cul
Page 163 and 164: Annexure IRegional Human Developmen
Page 165 and 166: Annexure ICountry Treaty Concluding
Page 167 and 168: Annexure IAnnexure IIInternational
Page 169 and 170: Technical Note - ATechnical Note -
Page 171 and 172: Technical Note - A(EDEP) is calcula
Page 173 and 174: Technical Note - Bvalue is to the u
Page 175 and 176: Technical Note - Bsubstantial degre
Page 177 and 178: Technical Note - Bthe rate of growt
Page 179 and 180: Technical Note - BThe full list of
Page 181: Technical Note - B(13) H =(α∗ρ
Page 185 and 186: Technical Note - BTable T3(b)HIV/AI
Page 187 and 188: Technical Note - BTable T7HIV/AIDS
Page 189 and 190: Technical Note - BDominican Republi
Page 191 and 192: Statistical TablesStatistical Table
Page 193 and 194: Statistical TablesTable 3Profile of
Page 195 and 196: Statistical TablesRegional Human De
Page 197 and 198: Country act SheetsRegional Human De
Page 199 and 200: Country act SheetsBANGLADESHIndicat
Page 201 and 202: Country act SheetsINDIAIndicator Ye
Page 203 and 204: Country act SheetsMALDIVESIndicator
Page 205 and 206: Country act SheetsPAKISTANIndicator
Page 207: Country act SheetsRegional Human De
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