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Nexus between Human Development and HIV/AIDSfuture. A study for Rwanda estimated thatthe loss of a female adult member of anagricultural household could lead to anearly 50 per cent decline in its farm labourinputs, and similar results have beendocumented elsewhere in sub-SaharanAfrica. 63 Some of the consequences of thishas been a shift to less labour-intensivecash crops, declines in cultivated areas,and less animal husbandry. 64 In Zimbabwe,household survey results suggest thatAIDS-affected households experiencedsignificant declines in production onaverage—61 per cent in maize production,47 per cent in cotton production, and37 per cent in groundnut production. 65The effects of HIV/AIDS on national orregional agricultural production levels,however, have not been as welldocumented. A major reason couldsimply be the substitution of this lostproduction by increased agriculturalproduction among households notaffected by AIDS, a process facilitated byland transfers/sales from AIDS-affectedfamilies to such households. The onlysector-level estimates available are fromcomputable general equilibrium (CGE)model-based simulations undertaken byArndt and Lewis (2001) for South Africa,which show that value added in theagricultural sector in that country wouldbe 17 per cent lower in 2010 under aprojected AIDS scenario compared to asituation of no AIDS.Private sectorHIV/AIDS has the potential ofinfluencing private firms’ operating innon-agricultural sectors along these samelines—costs of worker replacement,absenteeism, insurance expenses, andhealthcare expenditures. In addition,there is the possibility of legal actionrelated to discrimination against HIVinfectedemployees and possible loss ofcustomer base. Non-economic factors, inthe form of loss of morale in the work forceas workers lose many of their colleaguesto AIDS or if HIV-positive workersare stigmatised, could also affectproductivity. 66 The evidence on theeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS on theprivate sector thus far is, however, mixed.Using data from a survey of nearly 1,000firms in sub-Saharan Africa, Biggs andShah (1997) concluded that the impact ofAIDS on staff turnover was minimal.However, they did find that replacingprofessional staff—often thought to be athigh risk, based on early studies in Africa—to be a significant problem, with firmstaking 24 weeks to replace a deceasedprofessional, compared to two to threeweeks for less skilled staff. Indeed, thereare examples of multinationals in SouthAfrica hiring three workers for each skilledposition to ensure that replacements areon hand when trained workers die. 67HIV/AIDS could adversely affect thecustomer base of companies, since thegroup hardest hit by AIDS—young adultsof working age—is also the group withmore purchasing power. Spending willbe redirected away from a host of sectorsto the health sector, which could seeincreased demand. Such effects are notreadily detected by individual firmsbecause of the dissipation of spendingimplications across local and internationaleconomies. Effects on thecustomer base are more likely to betransparent if there are dominant firms, orfirms organised into business associations.Transport sectorSeveral analyses have focused on the roleof people involved in the truckingindustry as a facilitating factor in HIVtransmission. 68 There are also a fewanalyses of the impact of HIV/AIDS onthe transport sector, relating to railwaysand the trucking industry. A study 69 of thesocio-economic impact of HIV on theA study forRwanda estimatedthat the loss of afemale adultmember of anagriculturalhousehold couldlead to a nearly50 per cent declinein its farm labourinputs.Regional Human Development ReportHIV/AIDS and Development in South Asia 2003 33