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Technical Note - BTable T2(b)HIV/AIDS and the Human Development Index, 1980–99, IV estimatesRegressors Human Development Index 1999(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)Constant 0.04(0.04) 0.02(0.05) 0.06(0.03) -0.01(0.04) 0.02(0.05)HDI80 1.17(0.15) 1.20(0.20) 1.25(0.11) 1.51(0.13) 1.46(0.17)HDI80*HDI80 -0.17(0.12) -0.17(0.16) -0.29(0.09) -0.50(0.11) -0.46(0.13)HIV prevalence 1998(per 100 population -0.0061 -0.0065aged 15–64 in 1998) (0.0012) (0.0011)Average annualincrease in cumulativeAIDS cases 1980-98 -0.17(per 100 population (0.03)aged 15–64 in 1998)Number ofobservations 93 67 93 67 67HausmanTeststatisticChi-sq(3) 16.16 20.81 33.76R-squared 0.957 0.966 0.970 0.979 0.975Note: Robust standard errors reported in parentheses. Specifications (3)-(5) are estimated using instrumentalvariables for the HIV/AIDS variables.Instruments: HDI80, HDI80-squared, Year of the start of the AIDS epidemic, proportion of population that isMuslim, the degree of openness of an economy (ratio of the sum of imports and exports to GDP in 1980), themean years of schooling in population aged 15 years and above (1980), the ratio of life-expectancy of femalesto that of males, and the rate of growth of population during 1970-80.Table T3(a)HIV/AIDS and life expectancy at birth, 1980–98, OLS estimatesRegressors Life Expectancy at Birth, 1998(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)Constant -30.48 -12.94 -26.17 -23.85 -21.85(12.06) (15.90) (8.00) (9.32) (9.79)Life expectancy, 1980 (years) 2.24 1.54 2.30 2.15 2.07(0.42) (0.56) (0.26) (0.32) (0.32)Life expectancy, 1980 Squared -0.011 -0.004 -0.012 -0.010 -0.010(0.004) (0.005) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003)HIV prevalence 1998 (per 100 -0.58 -0.54population aged 15–64 in 1998) (0.08) (0.09)Average annual increase incumulative AIDS cases 1980-98 -11.40per 100 population aged 15-64 (3.25)in 1998)Number of observations 112 76 112 76 76R-squared 0.874 0.891 0.936 0.943 0.947Source: Author’s calculations. Heteroskedasticity-corrected standard errors reported in parentheses.<strong>Regional</strong> Human Development <strong>Report</strong>HIV/AIDS and Development in South <strong>Asia</strong> 2003 179

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