Greater Dublin Area Draft Transport Strategy 2011-2030

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4.2 Population growth and settlement patternsIn 2006, the population in the GDA was 1.66million, up approximately 18% on the previous tenyear period. The population of the GDA in 2006accounted for approximately 39% of the State’spopulation. In the ten year period to 2006, therate of population growth in the Mid East (37%)was three times the rate of growth in the DublinRegion (12%). Similarly, the rate of growth in theHinterland Area was three times the rate of growthof the Metropolitan area.The rate of population growth in the GDAHinterland away from larger towns accelerateddramatically in the four year period up to 2006.In terms of population growth, the forecastsused in the Strategy are based on a number ofprojections and targets produced by others.The primary information was taken from regionalpopulation projections produced by the CentralStatistics Office (CSO) 9 and the subsequent circularfrom the Department of the Environment and LocalGovernment (DOEHLG) 10 .The CSO Population and Labour Force Projections2011 to 2041 M2F1 (Traditional scenario) figurewas used to estimate the population for 2030 (thisinvolved interpolating between 2026 and 2031).Although a slowdown in population growth hasrecently taken place associated with the economicdownturn, the forecasts estimate that by 2030 thepopulation of the GDA will grow to 2.29 million,representing an increase of 39% over 2006 levels 11 .The population forecasts used in the Strategyassume that the 2030 share of the state’spopulation living in the GDA will remain constantat the 2006 share of 39%.In terms of forecasting settlement patterns withinthe GDA, two distinct distribution scenarioswere explored; Scenario A – “Compliance withminimum RPG targets and policies” and Scenario B– “Large town and rail focussed development, alsocompliant with RPG policies”.Scenario A reflects the minimum targets setout in the RPG settlement strategy allowing forsignificant population growth in the MetropolitanArea and larger Hinterland towns up to 2022,as well as growth in smaller towns and the ruralHinterland. Post 2022, a restriction on populationgrowth in the rural Hinterland was assumed.Scenario B – Large town and rail focusseddevelopment, whilst remaining consistent withthe RPGs, assumes a greater consolidation ofpopulation within the Metropolitan area andLarge Growth Hinterland Towns, particularly inthe vicinity of rail stations. It also assumes greaterconsolidation of employment in the city centre,around rail in the Metropolitan area and in largergrowth towns in the Hinterland area. As such, it ismore likely to support the sustainable integrationof transport and land use and therefore Scenario Bwas used for forecasts of growth distribution andsettlement patterns.9 CSO Regional Population Projections 2011-2026 (Dec 2008) &Population and Labour Force Projections 2011-204110 DOEHLG National Population Projections and RegionalPopulation Targets 2010 To 2022 (Jan 2009)11 GDA forecast based on DoEHLG regional forecasts to 2022(2008), Metropolitan and Hinterland distributions are basedon DoEHLG Gateway targets (October 2009) and NTAinterpretation of RPG policies. Scenarios with lower overallpopulation forecasts (-20%) have also been examined.Chapter 4: page 4 www.2030vision.ie
Figure 4.2: Population share by area5%6%17%49%City centre (Inside Canals)Inner suburbs (Within M50)Outer suburbs (Outside M50)Rural hinterlandLarger hinterland towns23%19961.40 million total6%6%19%41%7%9%17%37%27%20061.66 million total30%20302.29 million totalIn the period up to 2030, all areas of the GDA areexpected to see a growth in population, with thefastest rate of growth expected in the city centreand the Metropolitan outer suburbs. In addition,the share in the rural Hinterland and lower orderHinterland towns is expected to be lower and thiswould be a significant change, when comparedwith recent trends in Hinterland growth.Chapter 4: page 5 www.2030vision.ie
Page 5 and 6: The Greater Dublin AreaExecutive Su
Page 7 and 8: Travel in the Greater Dublin AreaTh
Page 9 and 10: Strategy options and assemblingthe
Page 11 and 12: The StrategyOverviewThe Strategy ob
Page 14: Public TransportPublic transport is
Page 19 and 20: Part A:Backgroundand Options
Page 21: 1.1 Purpose of this documentThe Nat
Page 24 and 25: Part B: The Strategy comprises:•
Page 27: 2.1 IntroductionThis chapter sets o
Page 31 and 32: • Mode shift to public transport
Page 33: National Spatial Strategy (NSS)The
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 3Strategy visionand objecti
Page 38 and 39: 3.4 Strategy Sub-objectivesThe foll
Page 40 and 41: Chapter 4Travel in the GreaterDubli
Page 42 and 43: The outer suburbsIn the 1960s, plan
Page 46 and 47: Figure 4.3: Projected distribution
Page 48: Figure 4.5: Projected distribution
Page 51 and 52: Figure 4.8: Journey purpose and dis
Page 53 and 54: 4.8 ConclusionsThe projected growth
Page 56 and 57: Travel and economic activity are cl
Page 59 and 60: Many areas remain poorly served by
Page 61 and 62: Figure 5.4: Road fatalities in the
Page 63 and 64: Chapter 5: page 9 www.2030vision.ie
Page 65 and 66: 6.1 IntroductionThis chapter looks
Page 67 and 68: While each option attempts to meet
Page 69 and 70: Some strategic infrastructure propo
Page 71 and 72: Base and forecast yearsThe base yea
Page 73: 6.11 Assembling the StrategyThe ass
Page 76 and 77: Chapter 7Overview of theStrategyIn
Page 78: To make this happen, the needs of p
Page 81 and 82: 8.1 IntroductionTransport is a deri
Page 83 and 84: Figure 8.1: RPG Settlement Hierarch
Page 85 and 86: 8.4 Serving local and strategic tra
Page 87 and 88: Measure LU2:Development plans and l
Page 89 and 90: Rail based development areas:Outer
Page 91 and 92: Measure LU3:Development plans and L
Page 93 and 94: Measure LU4:• The Authority will
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Chapter 8: page 15 www.2030vision.i
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9.1 IntroductionThe Strategy envisa
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Footpaths on the approaches to town
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9.4.2 Improving pedestrian crossing
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Measure WCY 9:The Authority will:
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Measure WCY 12:The Authority will s
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Cycle parking at workplacesThe Depa
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10.1 IntroductionPublic transport i
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Measure BUS 2:The Authority will se
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Measure BUS 6:Infrastructural measu
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The hours of operation of bus lanes
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Measure BUS 11:The Authority will s
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An upgrade and renewal of the signa
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Measure RAIL 3 (continued):The Auth
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10.3.5 Light rail (Metro and Luas)L
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Measure RAIL 10:The Authority will
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Measure RAIL 16:The Authority will
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Taxis can also act as a substitute
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Measure INT 1:The Authority will se
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Measure INT 4:The Authority will se
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Chapter 11Roads, freight andtravel
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The implications of these principle
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The Leinster Orbital Route is an or
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Road authorities need to have polic
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Figure 11.1: Motorways and National
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Managing movements of heavy vehicle
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11.3 Travel demand management11.3.1
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Measure TDM 1:The Authority will ev
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The Department of Smarter Travel Wo
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Chapter 12Expected OutcomesIn this
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Strategy ObjectivesEconomythemed op
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No. Sub-objective Strategyscore1.2
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12.3.2 Objective 2 Improve economic
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Figure 12.2: Forecast road congesti
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In comparison the equivalent reduct
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12.3.4 Objective 4 - Respect and su
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Reductions in greenhouse gas emissi
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Total travel time by public transpo
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12.5 Meeting Smarter Travel targets
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In urban areas, traffic management
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Chapter 12: page 35 www.2030vision.
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13.1 OverviewChapters 7 to 11 list
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the achievement of, the Strategy an
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Agglomeration: Economic activity co
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Natura 2000: European network of Sp
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National Transport AuthorityDún Sc
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Greater Dublin Area Draft Transport Strategy 2011-2030

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