Indonesia Human Development Report 2001 - UNDP

services. The first indicator is measured by the probabilityof the population not expected to survive to age 40 (P 1).The calculation of this indicator follows the method ofcalculating life expectancy for HDI measurement. Thesecond indicator is measured by adult illiteracy rate (P 2).This is calculated based on SUPAS 1995 and SUSENAS1996 data and covers population age 15 and above. Whilethe limitation on access to basic services (P 3) consists ofthe following variables:• Percentage of population without access to clean water(=P 31). P 31is defined as the percentage of householdusing water source other tap water, water pumpand wheel that is located 10 meters or more from sewagedisposal. This data is collected from SUPAS 1995and SUSENAS 1998.• Percentage of population without access to health services(=P 32). P 32is defined as the percentage of populationlives in the location 5 km or more from healthfacilities. The data source is the same as above.• Percentage of children under five years old with lownutritional status (=P 33). P 33is defined as the percentageof children less than five years old belong to thecategory of low and medium nutritional status.Calculating the HPIFor this publication, the calculation of HPI followsthe HDR 1997 published by UNDP:HPI = [1/3 (P1 3 + P2 3 + P3 3 )] 1/3Where P3 = 1/3 (P31+ P32 + P33)Procedures for estimating time required toreach particular targetsThe time required to reach particular targets in severalhuman development indicators, as presented in this report,is estimated by assuming that the past speed ofimprovement in those indicators as being constant in thefuture. The speed of improvement here indicates theabsolute changes, as referred to a simple average of annualincrease (or decline), expressed in years. By comparingdata in 1990 (I90), 1993 (I93), 1996 (I96) and 1999 (I99),thus, the annual speed of improvement (s) is given as:s = [(I93 - I90)/3 + (I96 - I93)/3 + (I99 - I96)/3]/3Then, the estimated time (T) to reach particular target orgoal in human development indicators (G) can be simplycalculated as follows:T = (G - I99)/sAs an illustration, the following equation shows thecalculation of HDI for Aceh province in 1999:Probability of people not expectedto survive to age 40 - P1 (%) 12.7Adult illiteracy rate -P2 (%) 6.9Population without access tosafe water - P31 (%) 61.5Population without access tohealth services -P32 (%) 37.6Undernourished children under age 5 - P33 35.6The composite of deprivation variablesP3 = 1/3 (61.5+37.6+35.6) = 44.9Human poverty indexHPI = [1/3 (12.7 3 + 6.9 3 + 44.9 3 )] 1/3 = 31.4HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS AND INDICES153