Estimates

SUMMARYSince 2008, an average of 26.4 million people have been displacedfrom their homes each year by disasters brought on by naturalhazards- equivalent to one person displaced every second.The time is opportune to ensure the causes and consequencesof this urgent issue are better addressed. Policy makersare pushing for concerted progress across humanitarian andsustainable development goals, including disaster risk reductionand action on climate change. This annual report, the sixth of itskind, aims to equip governments, local authorities, civil societyorganisations and international and regional institutions withevidence relevant to these key post-2015 agenda.Our report draws on information from a wide range of sources,including governments, UN and international organisations,NGOs and media, to provide up-to-date statistics on the incidenceof displacement caused by disasters associated withgeophysical and weather-related hazards such as earthquakes,volcanic eruptions, floods and storms.The global data does not cover displacement related todrought and gradual processes of environmental degradation,nor does it reflect the complexity and diversity of people’s individualsituations or how they evolve over time.This year, we have dedicated a section to protracted displacementin the aftermath of disasters - a significant knowledgeblind spot that requires increased attention from governments,the UN, the International Red Cross and Red CrescentMovement and other international and civil society organisations.The key findings and messages from each section of thereport are summarised below.The global picture: scale, patterns and trendsLatest estimatesMore than 19.3 million people were displaced by disasters in100 countries in 2014.Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million people have beendisplaced by disasters each year - equivalent to one personevery second.Displacement by hazard type17.5 million people were displaced by disasters brought on byweather-related hazards in 2014, and 1.7 million by geophysicalhazards.An average of 22.5 million people have been displaced eachyear by climate or weather-related disasters in the last sevenyears - equivalent to 62,000 people every day.The largest increases in displacement are related to weatherand climate-related hazards, and floods in particular.Climate change, in tandem with people’s increasing exposureand vulnerability, is expected to magnify this trend, as extremeweather events become more frequent and intense in thecoming decades.Variance from year to yearThe significant fluctuation from year to year in the numberof people forced to flee their homes by disasters is driven byrelatively infrequent but huge events that displace millions ofpeople at a time.Displacement trend from 1970 to 2014Latest historical models suggest that even after adjusting forpopulation growth, the likelihood of being displaced by a disastertoday is 60 per cent higher than it was four decades ago.1998 was a peak year for displacement, which correlateswith the strongest iteration of El Niño on record. Extremeweather events associated with it included hurricane Mitch,which devastated several countries in Central America.Trends in exposure and vulnerabilityThe occurrence of displacement closely mirrors people’s exposureto hazards around the world. Exposure is increasingbecause ever growing numbers of vulnerable people live inareas prone to hazards.Two key drivers of exposure and vulnerability are urban populationgrowth in developing countries, and economic growth.The urban population in developing countries has increasedby 326 per cent since 1970. This rapid growth has for the mostpart been unplanned and poorly governed, leading to highexposure and vulnerability. Middle-income countries bearthe brunt of the phenomenon.People in low-income countries are more vulnerable still,but relatively fewer people are exposed to hazards. That said,population projections suggest that exposure will increase inmany low-income countries over the coming decades.The relatively low vulnerability of high-income countries doesnot mean that they are not affected. Around 1.8 million peoplewere displaced in high-income countries in 2014, and this isexplained by three factors:» All countries are vulnerable to the most extreme hazards» Inequality within high-income countries makes displacementa particular concern for people less well off and thosesubject to discrimination and marginalisation» Effective early warning systems and disaster responsessave lives, but increase displacement among survivors as aprotective measureGeographical distribution and the biggest eventsDisplacement by region and countryAsia is home to 60 per cent of the world’s population, but accountedfor 87 per cent of the people displaced by disastersworldwide in 2014. 16.7 million people were forced to flee theirhomes in the region.8 Global Estimates 2015