Estimates

Secondary displacementIn some cases, people fleeing a naturalhazard or disaster were already livingin displacement before it struck. If it wasclear, for example, that people alreadydisplaced by conflict were then forcedto flee again in 2014 by an event such asthe flooding of their camp, the new movementswere recorded as new incidencesof displacements related to a naturalhazard. It should be noted that the veryfew events of this type that we recordprobably under-represent the frequencyof secondary displacement related tonatural hazards as information acrossmost situations is hard to identify.Sources of informationWe regularly review the types of informationdifferent sources release onthe number, needs and characteristics ofdisplaced people, primarily by gatheringand monitoring secondary reports. Wesystematically seek a range of sourcesfor each country and each disaster. Forour 2014 estimates, we increased our researchcapacity and analysed data fromsources including government reportsand national disaster loss databases, IOM,IFRC’s disaster management informationsystem, UN Office for the Coordinationof Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) andother UN agencies, humanitarian clusterreports, the Asian Disaster ReductionCentre’s global unique disaster identifierwebsite and NGO reports.We also used reputable media outletsas a source of quotes from governmentofficials and local authorities, and localmedia reports provided an additionalsource for small events. IOM country officesprovided field data and/or gave usaccess to official sources that we incorporatedinto our data for 37 countries.If the original source of quantified informationwas unidentifiable, mostly in thecase of figures quoted in the media, werecorded it as “unspecified” rather thanreferencing the publisher.Selection and calculation of estimatesby event or disasterIn providing our global estimates, weaim to arrive at the best approximationof the total number of people displacedby a specific event or disaster, measuringthe incidence of displacement ratherthan the evolution of the number of peopledisplaced and their movements and situationsover time. Our analysis and interpretationof information from multiple sourcesincludes the cross-checking of reportedlocations and dates to ensure that figuresare associated with the same disaster andtime period, and that double counting isavoided or minimised. All new incidences ofdisplacement during a given event or disasterperiod are recorded, which requiresthe analysis of reporting dates and theconsideration of series of situation reports.The estimate per event is selectedaccording to the most accurate and reliablefigure provided or calculated basedon a single source, or combined sourceswhen it is clear that overlap and doublecounting can be avoided. The number oforiginal sources available (disregardingthose that re-publish original informationfrom elsewhere) varies from one or twofor smaller events to more than four forlarger events. Disasters widely coveredby the media or which continue for longperiods of time also tend to have moresources from which to draw.If displacement was clearly reportedbut no explicit figures were available onwhich to base an estimate, we did not includethe event in our data. When figureswere only provided in generic terms andmore precise data was not available, weapplied the following rule: “hundreds” =200; “thousands” = 2,000; “hundreds ofthousands” = 200,000Reporting terms that identifydisplacementA wide range of methods, definitionsand terms - such as evacuated, homeless,damaged and destroyed housing,fled, relocated and affected - are used forcollecting and reporting figures, and differentsources use them in different ways.Such variations arise in part because organisationshave different reasons forcollecting and reporting data in the firstplace. In operational settings, the term“displaced” is often applied more narrowlythan our definition. It may be used only forpeople staying in official collective sitesor camps, or those displaced a certaindistance from their homes.In some cases evacuees who move toshort-term evacuation centres are countedseparately from IDPs in camp-likesettings. In others, they are considered asubset of the displaced population. IDPsare sometimes considered a subset ofthe affected population, and sometimesadditional to it. Information describing thecontext and point in time at which displacementis reported, knowledge of typicalpatterns observed in similar contextsand the quality and reliability of differentsources are also taken into account.We interpret the data we collect usingthe same broad and inclusive definitionof displaced people across all eventsworldwide. Our definition assumes theyare part of the population affected by adisaster, but this does not imply that allthose affected have been displaced. Weconsider evacuees to be IDPs whetheror not their evacuation was pre-emptive,and we define people whose homes arerendered uninhabitable as displaced,regardless of how near or far from theirhomes they move and whether or not theyare able to return.We recognise that different situationscreate different needs, but our researchdoes not suggest that IDPs who fleefurther necessarily have greater needsor are more vulnerable. On the contrary,displacement over short distances maybe a better indicator of vulnerability, particularlyif it is recurrent, given that thoseaffected may be unable to make their wayto safer locations or places where theyhave better access to assistance.Evacuation dataIn addition to direct reports of peoplehaving been displaced, fled or been forcedto leave their homes, we often use dataabout mandatory evacuations and peoplestaying in official evacuation centres toestimate event-based displacement.On the one hand, the number of peoplecounted in evacuation centres mayunderestimate the total number of evacuees,given that some may take refuge atunofficial sites or with family and friends.On the other, the number of people orderedto evacuate may overstate theirtrue number, given that some will usuallynot heed the order. The potential for suchdiscrepancies is much greater when authoritiesadvise rather than order evacuation,and as a result we do not incorporatesuch figures into our estimates.82 Global Estimates 2015