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46 Global <strong>Estimates</strong> 2015A displaced woman, stranded at a hotelin Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Sheand thousands of First Nation peoplewere forced from their homes in 2011by floods around Lake St. Martin. Theychecked into Winnipeg hotels, assumingthey would return to their homes withina couple of weeks. Four years later, theyare still there.Photo (cropped): Wookey Films, 2014
5MIND YOURASSUMPTIONSProtracted displacementfollowing disastersKey findings and messagesRelatively little is known about protracteddisplacement situations followingdisasters. They are poorly monitoredand little reported on. A sample we havecollated of 34 ongoing cases accountsfor more than 715,000 people stuck inlimbo, and points to the likelihood ofhundreds of thousands more who havenot yet been recorded.The common assumption that displacementfollowing disasters is shorttermand temporary does not hold truein many cases. The cases we identifiedhighlight the plight of people who havebeen living in protracted displacementfor up to 26 years.People in such situations receive littleattention and are likely to be left behindin long-term recovery, disaster riskreduction and development processes.Better data and further research isneeded to create a solid evidence basefor policymakers’ and responders’ decisions.Hazards are diverse in their nature anddynamics. Some persist for long periodsand can become permanent barriersto return. The repeated impacts of frequentshort-lived hazards on vulnerablecommunities can also lead to protracteddisplacement.Displacement following disasters is oftenfraught with complex and politicalobstacles to solutions. Obstacles frequentlyencountered include access toland and discrimination against vulnerableand marginalised groups. Addressingthe long-lasting social and psychologicalconsequences of displacementis as important as the physical rebuildingof homes and infrastructure.Most of the cases of protracted displacementwe identified are in low andmiddle-income developing countries,but there are also significant examplesin rich countries, such as the US andJapan. Vulnerable and marginalisedpeople in high-income countries alsorisk being excluded from solutions.Governments should prioritise measuresto advance solutions and strengthenthe resilience of people whose displacementrisks becoming protracted,or has already become so. They includepeople whose former homes have becomepermanently inaccessible or unsafe,informal settlers, poor tenants andpeople who face discrimination basedon their class, ethnicity, gender or age.Interventions should be adapted to theirspecific needs.When displaced people move on toanother location during or after theemergency phase of a response, theirsituation should be verified. They shouldnot be allowed to drop off the radar as“residual caseloads” when humanitarianpriorities shift towards longer-termrecovery and development.Local authorities, civil society networksand community-based organisationsshould be mobilised and supported tohelp identify and monitor cases of protracteddisplacement. This is important,given that many of those affected areall but invisible, because they are dispersedamong wider populations andin urban areas.5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters47
Page 1: Global Estimates 2015People displac
Page 4 and 5: IDMC core project teamCoordinator/l
Page 7 and 8: 5. Mind your assumptions: Protracte
Page 9 and 10: FIGURES, TABLES AND MAPSFigure 2.1:
Page 11 and 12: Modelled global displacement trend
Page 13 and 14: 1INTRODUCTIONSince 2008, an average
Page 15 and 16: 2CONCEPTUALISINGDISPLACEMENTin the
Page 17 and 18: Box 2.1: Slow-onset hazards and gra
Page 19 and 20: Repeated and frequent displacementR
Page 21 and 22: 3THE GLOBAL PICTUREScale, patterns
Page 23 and 24: Figure 3.2: Global displacement by
Page 25 and 26: Box 3.1: “Super” El Niño and d
Page 27 and 28: While more resilient families may b
Page 30 and 31: 28 Global Estimates 2015A woman sta
Page 32 and 33: 4.1 RegionsAs in previous years, As
Page 34 and 35: 4.2 CountriesThe number of people d
Page 36 and 37: forward, the municipalities of Pasc
Page 38 and 39: 4.4 The big three: China, India and
Page 40 and 41: Map 4.1: Philippines regions affect
Page 42 and 43: Displacement caused by seasonalfloo
Page 44 and 45: 4.6 Multiple hazards in fragile and
Page 46 and 47: SPOTLIGHTAFGHANISTANBlurred lines b
Page 50 and 51: The global data presented in this r
Page 52 and 53: The international experts we interv
Page 54 and 55: perstorm Sandy in 2009, and indigen
Page 56 and 57: SPOTLIGHTPAPUA NEW GUINEAManam isla
Page 58 and 59: SPOTLIGHTINDONESIASidoarjo mudflow
Page 60 and 61: SPOTLIGHTBANGLADESHSix years after
Page 62 and 63: Figure 5.4: Movement of IDPs from a
Page 64 and 65: SPOTLIGHTHAITIChronic vulnerability
Page 66 and 67: Conditions have continued to deteri
Page 68 and 69: Map 5.3: Ongoing displacement in th
Page 70 and 71: The mental and physical health ofID
Page 72 and 73: SPOTLIGHTUNITED STATESDisplaced peo
Page 74: assistance available and implementa
Page 77 and 78: 6THE POST-2015GLOBAL POLICYAGENDAKe
Page 79 and 80: A landslide devastated villages in
Page 81 and 82: ANNEX AMethodologyIDMC’s annual G
Page 83 and 84: protracted displacement situations
Page 85 and 86: Data on housing rendereduninhabitab
Page 87 and 88: Modelling and calibration usingthe
Page 89 and 90: We also asked each interviewee toth
Page 91 and 92: RankingCountry Hazard Affected area
Page 93 and 94: * Text in parentheses indicates the
Page 95 and 96: Country DisasterStartdateTotal no.
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Country DisasterStartdateTotal no.
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Country DisasterStartdateTotal no.
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REFERENCESSection 21. UNISDR, Termi
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34. NDRRMC, SitRep No.27 re Effects
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nation Group, October 2009, availab
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digidepo_8841940_po_076709.pdf?cont
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