Scope and limitationsDefining a long-lasting and protractedsituation, in which people continue to bedisplaced for longer than is normal or expectedand where little or no progressis being made towards achieving a durablesolution, is highly context specificand dependent on the perspective fromwhich this is considered, including thatof displaced people themselves. Giventhe international audience for this report,we have interpreted information basedon the timeframes commonly applied bygovernments and donor organisations fordisaster relief and early recovery, and atthe same time allowed the cases highlightedto question their appropriateness.Therefore, we focused on situations thathave lasted for at least a year, beyondthe timeframe commonly assumed emergencyfunding and response planning.Emphasis was also placed on situationsreported as ongoing in 2014/2015,the aim being to highlight cases of immediaterelevance and in need of attention,rather than those of more historicalinterest in terms of establishing lessonslearned.We looked for and found examples oflong-lasting and protracted displacementassociated with slow-onset as well asrapid-onset hazards and disasters. Ultimately,to be in line with the scope of thisreport, we chose to include only those forwhich the hazard event could be clearlyattributed as a direct factor driving displacement–that caused by the ongoingSidoarjo mudflow in Indonesia– in our list.The mudflow and its consequences arealso the subject of a spotlight in sectionfive of the report. Other research we havecarried out has shown that displacementassociated with drought other slow-onsethazards and processes can be long-lasting,and we will continue to investigateand analyse displacement related to suchsituations also.It should also be noted that, with a fewexceptions, our research relied on documentspublished in English. As a result,the cases listed in annex C are biasedtowards examples from English-speakingcountries or with a strong internationalpresence at the time of reporting.Literature reviewThe literature review focused on twotypes of source. The first was conceptualand thematic, providing overall analysesor syntheses of key issues. The secondwas case specific, focusing on particularsituations of long-lasting and protracteddisplacement. The two categories arenot mutually exclusive, however. Manysources that focus on a specific exampleof protracted displacement also haveimplications for conceptual framing andvice versa.The thematic category included anumber of overarching issues in the aftermathof disasters: the pursuit of durablesolutions; overcoming the obstacles thatlead to protracted displacement; shelterand land tenure; informal settlers and thechallenges of recovery in urban areas;populations awaiting relocation or resettlementwithin the country; comparisonsof displacement dynamics in conflict anddisaster situations; ethnographic analysesof disaster recovery; and psychologicalstudies of long-term impacts.Sources were aggregated from databasesof articles published in peerreviewedacademic and professionaljournals, including Disasters, ForcedMigration Review, the Oxford Monitorof Forced Displacement, the Journal ofRefugee Studies, Refugee Survey Quarterlyand International Migration Review.We also consulted research from thinktanks and other institutions that publishresearch online, including the BrookingsInstitution-LSE Project on Internal Displacement,the Oxford Refugee StudiesCentre, The Overseas Development Institute,IFRC and the UK government’sForesight project.Sources on specific cases were firstidentified from our country overviewreports. We then aggregated them viasearches on humanitarian informationservices such as ReliefWeb and IntegratedRegional Information Networks(IRIN). We also identified sources fromthe websites of international agenciessuch as IOM, the camp coordination andmanagement, protection and shelter clusters,IFRC and OCHA; and the websites ofinternational NGOs such as Oxfam, Care,Save the Children, the Solutions Allianceand Displacement Solutions. In addition,we did broader searches for media reportson World News Connection, GoogleNews and Google Search. These yieldedinformation published in newspapers andon news websites, radio and televisionprogrammes and blogs.To identify and aggregate sourcesacross databases, websites and searchengines, we used a variety of combinationsof keywords and phrases associatedwith disasters and protracted displacement:Disaster search termsDisasterNatural hazardClimateSpecific hazards - floods, earthquakes,volcanic eruptions, landslides,storms, typhoons, cyclones,hurricanes, mudflows, drought …Protracted displacement termsOne, two, five, ten years onRemain displaced, homeless,shelteredStill displaced, homeless, shelteredRemain in limboStalled durable solutionsNo solution near, in sightAwait resettlementNeglectIn all, we aggregated and analysed 118thematic and 328 case-specific sources.Semi-structured thematic interviewsWe identified potential key informantsby reviewing our list of academic and operationalcontacts from the humanitarian,development and human rights sectors.Interviewees were selected based on thelikelihood of their having direct knowledgeof situations, their ability to advise orfacilitate access to information, and theirconceptual work or expertise on the topic.They were also invited to suggest otherpotential contacts in a process known assnowball sampling.The interviews used a predeterminedset of questions to standardise discussions,while remaining flexible enough toallow for deeper consideration of topics inwhich the interviewees were expert. Thequestions began by gathering informationon their background to establish their perspectiveor theoretical approach. We thenasked how they would conceptualise protracteddisplacement, and whether therewere gaps in knowledge and reporting.86 Global <strong>Estimates</strong> 2015
We also asked each interviewee tothink of specific cases to flag for furtherresearch and potential addition toour database. The interviews concludedwith questions about additional sourcesto supplement the literature review andsuggestions of other potential contacts.We conducted 21 interviews with expertsat academic and research institutions,and practitioners in the fields ofhumanitarian disaster response, protection,human rights and development. Weinterviewed six key informants from UNagencies and other international organisations,six from university-affiliated researchinstitutes, four from internationalNGOs, three from the intergovernmentalNansen Initiative and two from think tanks(see acknowledgements at the front ofthis report).We also targeted 11 IOM country officesbased on references to protracted displacementidentified in their publications, includingAfghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia,Madagascar, Micronesia, Mozambique,Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippinesand Sri Lanka. Ten of the 11 offices knewof current cases in their countries. Someevidence was more formally documentedthrough the displacement tracking matrix(DTM) and official publications, while otherevidence was based on personal observationsand common knowledge, and wasmore anecdotal in nature. We also reachedout to a selection of in-country humanitarianprotection clusters and received additionalinformation from Haiti, Tonga, SolomonIslands, and Colombia.Logging ongoing casesThe literature review and interviewsyielded 66 cases of displacement associatedwith disasters that had lasted forlonger than one year. We then filtered thesample looking for examples that werestill ongoing in 2014/2015. This narrowedit down to 34 cases, which are detailedin annex C.We have added these cases to our database,along with others which have lessclearly defined start dates, and/or whichwe were unable to establish as ongoing.Together with further qualitative researchon the dynamic nature of protracted situations,they will provide a starting point forour monitoring and analysis of this typeof situation.Annexes87
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Global Estimates 2015People displac
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IDMC core project teamCoordinator/l
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5. Mind your assumptions: Protracte
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FIGURES, TABLES AND MAPSFigure 2.1:
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Modelled global displacement trend
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1INTRODUCTIONSince 2008, an average
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2CONCEPTUALISINGDISPLACEMENTin the
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Box 2.1: Slow-onset hazards and gra
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Repeated and frequent displacementR
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3THE GLOBAL PICTUREScale, patterns
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Figure 3.2: Global displacement by
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While more resilient families may b
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28 Global Estimates 2015A woman sta
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4.1 RegionsAs in previous years, As
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forward, the municipalities of Pasc
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