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4.6 Multiple hazards in fragile andconflict-affected statesAcross the 33 countries the WorldBank defines as fragile and conflict-affected,53 51 per cent of their populationsor 500 million people live in poverty. Accordingto the Organisation for EconomicCooperation and Development’s definition,which takes in more countries, thefigure is 43 per cent or 1.2 billion people. 54Natural hazards are a common andsignificant element of the complex landscapefor exposed and vulnerable populationsin such countries. All fragile andconflict-affected countries on the WorldBank’s list experienced displacementassociated with natural hazards and disastersbetween 2008 and 2014. In 2014alone, more than 750,000 people in 23fragile and conflict-affected countrieswere displaced (see figure 4.9.a).Given the complex mix of overlappingfactors that cause displacement in fragileand conflict-affected countries, collectingand disaggregating data accordingto hazard type is particularly difficult. Itis also potentially misleading in termsof understanding causes and predictingdynamics to consider hazard typesseparately.At the same time, considering bothtypes of data together points to the relationshipbetween different hazard typesand the complexity of displacement insuch contexts. The various factors thatlead to peoples’ displacement and determinetheir onward options and decisionsalso reflect this complexity, as illustratedbelow in the case of Afghanistan.Our data shows that between 2010and 2014, 13 countries suffered significantnew displacement associated withboth conflict and natural hazards. 55 In2014, significant numbers of people weredisplaced by conflict and natural hazardsin India, Pakistan, the Philippines, SouthSudan and Sudan (see figure 4.10.a). Asshown by the cases presented in section5 and annex C, fragile states are affectedby long-lasting displacement such as inHaiti, Myanmar and Zimbabwe.Figure 4.9: Displacement in fragile and conflict-affected states, 2008-2014a) 2014 compared to theannual averageb) States with the highest relative levels of displacement,2008-2014 (per million inhabitants)Displaced people (millions)1.51.20.90.62008-2014 average20140.30Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015HaitiChadMyanmarSouth SudanSolomon IslandsMarshall IslandsComorosMadagascarPapua New GuineaBiHAngolaSudanGambiaNepalCAR0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Absolute scaleRelative scaleSomalia0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,00042 Global <strong>Estimates</strong> 2015
Figure 4.10: Countries with new displacement associated with both natural hazards and conflict, 2014 and 2010-2014a) 201410,000,000Conflict-relatedNatural hazard-relatedPeople displaced (logscale)1,000,000100,00010,000SouthSudanDR CongoPakistanSudanIndiaAfghanistanColombiaEthiopiaPhilippinesSomaliaNote: Countries with at least 250,000 people newly displaced related to conflict and at least 10,000 related to natural hazardsConflict refers to both armed conflict and generalised violenceSource of data: IDMC, conflict-related data as of 6 May 2015 and natural hazard-related data as of 1 June 2015b) 2010 - 201425Natural hPeople displaced (millions)201510Conflict-relatedNatural hazard-related50PakistanSudanNigeriaSouthSudanPhilippines ColombiaIndiaKenyaMyanmarSriLankaMexicoIndonesiaThailandNote: Countries with at least 250,000 people newly displaced related to conflict and at least 250,000 related to natural hazardsConflict refers to both armed conflict and generalised violenceSource of data: IDMC, conflict-related data as of 6 May 2015 and natural hazard-related data as of 1 June 20154 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events43
Page 1: Global Estimates 2015People displac
Page 4 and 5: IDMC core project teamCoordinator/l
Page 7 and 8: 5. Mind your assumptions: Protracte
Page 9 and 10: FIGURES, TABLES AND MAPSFigure 2.1:
Page 11 and 12: Modelled global displacement trend
Page 13 and 14: 1INTRODUCTIONSince 2008, an average
Page 15 and 16: 2CONCEPTUALISINGDISPLACEMENTin the
Page 17 and 18: Box 2.1: Slow-onset hazards and gra
Page 19 and 20: Repeated and frequent displacementR
Page 21 and 22: 3THE GLOBAL PICTUREScale, patterns
Page 23 and 24: Figure 3.2: Global displacement by
Page 25 and 26: Box 3.1: “Super” El Niño and d
Page 27 and 28: While more resilient families may b
Page 30 and 31: 28 Global Estimates 2015A woman sta
Page 32 and 33: 4.1 RegionsAs in previous years, As
Page 34 and 35: 4.2 CountriesThe number of people d
Page 36 and 37: forward, the municipalities of Pasc
Page 38 and 39: 4.4 The big three: China, India and
Page 40 and 41: Map 4.1: Philippines regions affect
Page 42 and 43: Displacement caused by seasonalfloo
Page 46 and 47: SPOTLIGHTAFGHANISTANBlurred lines b
Page 48 and 49: 46 Global Estimates 2015A displaced
Page 50 and 51: The global data presented in this r
Page 52 and 53: The international experts we interv
Page 54 and 55: perstorm Sandy in 2009, and indigen
Page 56 and 57: SPOTLIGHTPAPUA NEW GUINEAManam isla
Page 58 and 59: SPOTLIGHTINDONESIASidoarjo mudflow
Page 60 and 61: SPOTLIGHTBANGLADESHSix years after
Page 62 and 63: Figure 5.4: Movement of IDPs from a
Page 64 and 65: SPOTLIGHTHAITIChronic vulnerability
Page 66 and 67: Conditions have continued to deteri
Page 68 and 69: Map 5.3: Ongoing displacement in th
Page 70 and 71: The mental and physical health ofID
Page 72 and 73: SPOTLIGHTUNITED STATESDisplaced peo
Page 74: assistance available and implementa
Page 77 and 78: 6THE POST-2015GLOBAL POLICYAGENDAKe
Page 79 and 80: A landslide devastated villages in
Page 81 and 82: ANNEX AMethodologyIDMC’s annual G
Page 83 and 84: protracted displacement situations
Page 85 and 86: Data on housing rendereduninhabitab
Page 87 and 88: Modelling and calibration usingthe
Page 89 and 90: We also asked each interviewee toth
Page 91 and 92: RankingCountry Hazard Affected area
Page 93 and 94: * Text in parentheses indicates the
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Country DisasterStartdateTotal no.
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REFERENCESSection 21. UNISDR, Termi
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34. NDRRMC, SitRep No.27 re Effects
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nation Group, October 2009, availab
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digidepo_8841940_po_076709.pdf?cont
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