Estimates

Repeated and frequent displacementRepeated cycles of displacement arefrequently observed in countries andareas exposed to natural hazards (seemaps in section 3 for example). Contraryto common assumptions, the early returnof people to their homes does not necessarilyindicate the end of their displacement.If recovery is beyond the means ofdisplaced families and the risk of furtherdisaster and displacement is not reduced,it does not constitute a safe and sustainablesolution.Long-lasting and protracteddisplacementLong-lasting and protracted displacementfollowing disasters, especially rapidonsetdisasters, is more prevalent thancommonly assumed 30 as shown by evidencepresented in section 5 and annex Cof this report. At the same time, the globaldata presented in this report does not followthe hundreds of new displacementsidentified each year to track how longpeople remain displaced for, what theirneeds are during displacement nor whatobstacles they face to achieving durablesolutions. Knowledge about the durationof displacement following disasters is adhoc and unconsolidated, as is more detailedidentification and analysis of casesof particular concern. 31 This constitutesan important gap that we have started toaddress more systematically as discussedin section 5.Definitions of protracted displacementvary across different organisations andperspectives and depend on the purposeand context in which the term is applied.They commonly include an element oftime as well as a notion of limbo or uncertaintyfor people facing significantobstacles to achieving solutions to theirdisplacement and for whom progress isslow or stalled. 32 The length of time thatpeople remain displaced can vary greatlyaccording to the specific context, andthresholds applied for the purpose of statisticalanalysis or research will tend to bearbitrary. 33 UNHCR data on displacementrelated to conflict applies the term to situationsthat have been ongoing for at leastfive years, 34 though it may be argued thatmany situations become protracted beforethat point. Length of time displaced isinsufficient in itself as an indicator of theseverity of the situation. For the purposeof the preliminary research presented inthis report, we have used a temporal valueto set the parameters of our analysis. Theminimum duration of one year was appliedas a timeframe commonly assumedfor the emergency response phase followingrapid-onset disaster, and withinwhich displaced people are expected tohave returned to their homes. This andother assumptions are also discussed insection 5.Displacement in terms of distancemovedThe distance people flee from theirhomes should not be taken as an indicatorof the severity of people’s situationswhile displaced. How far they move is determinedby a variety of factors, includingwhether areas near their homes are safeand accessible, and best able to accessassistance, be it from family and friends,the government or other providers.Staying as close to their homes aspossible is a common strategy that enablesdisplaced people to maintain theirsocial networks, protect their propertyand register their need for emergencyassistance. It may also, however, be theresult of a lack of better options or becausephysical, financial, social or politicalobstacles prevent them from moving furtherafield. 35 People in such situations arein essence both displaced and trapped, 36and as such they should be among thoseincluded for humanitarian assistance andprotection, particularly in the aftermathof a disaster that has caused significantdestruction.Internal and cross-border displacementThe vast majority of people who fleedisasters remain within their country ofresidence. As set out in the Guiding Principleson Internal Displacement, they aredescribed as internally displaced people(IDPs). 37 At the same time, in some regionssubstantial numbers of displacedpeople seek protection and assistanceabroad. 38 The global data on which thisreport is based covers only the incidenceof displacement, and not where displacedpeople flee to or where they eventuallysettle. As such, it does not allow us toquantify how many people may havecrossed an international border duringtheir displacement or how many settleabroad. Evidence gathered by the NansenInitiative on cross-border displacementis strongest for people displaced acrossborders in Africa in relation to droughtand floods, and in the Americas in relationto earthquakes and hurricanes inparticular. Examples from Asia are morerare, though disasters and environmentaldegradation have been linked to peoplemigrating abroad (see the case in section5 from Bangladesh). Little evidencehas been found of such displacementor migration from Europe. 39 As sea levelscontinue to rise it is expected thata significant portion of the populationsof small island countries and low-lyingcountries with extensive coastlines willbe forced to move abroad also. 40A durable solution to displacementis achieved a) when IDPs have found asettlement option through re-establishingtheir homes where they lived before thedisaster, through integrating locally in theareas where they have been displacedto, or through relocating and integratingelsewhere in the country, b) when theyno longer have specific assistance andprotection needs linked to their displacement,and c) when they can exercise theirhuman rights without discrimination. 41Whichever settlement option displacedpeople choose to pursue, theyoften face continuing problems and risksthat require support beyond the acutephase of a disaster. Achieving a durablesolution is a gradual and complex processthat needs timely and coordinated effortsto address humanitarian, developmentand human rights concerns.As such, an effective response todisplacement requires IDPs’ basic needsfor immediate protection and assistanceto be met in tandem with longer-termprocesses to ensure that solutions aredurable. Such an approach should includemeasures that reduce the risk offurther disaster and repeated displacement,wherever people choose and areable to settle. 42Further explanation of terms can befound in the methodological notes in annexA.2 | Conceptualising displacement in the context of disasters17