Estimates

Table A.1 Typology of natural hazards*Hazard category Hazard type Hazard sub-type Hazard sub-sub-typeGeophysicalEarthquake, mass movement,volcanic activityGround shaking, tsunami,sudden subsidence, sinkhole,landslide, rock fall, ashfall, lahar, pyroclastic flow,lava flow, toxic gasesMeteorologicalStorm, extreme temperaturesExtra-tropical storm, tropicalstorm (includes hurricane/cyclone), convective storm,cold wave, heat wave, severewinter conditionsDerecho, hailstorm, thunderstorm,rain storm, tornado,winter storm, blizzard, sandstorm, dust storm, stormsurge, galeHydrologicalFlooding, landslide, waveactionCoastal flood, riverine flood,flash flood, ice jam flood,avalanche (snow, debris,mudflow, rock fall), roguewave, seicheClimatological Drought, wildfire Forest fire, land fire (bush,brush, pasture)*This typology is adapted from the classification system developed by the international disaster database (EM-DAT), maintained by the Centre for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in Brussels.Spatial/geographical: Using an inclusiveglobal scope, we recorded the incidenceof displacement induced by disasters in173 countries between 2008 and 2014, and100 in 2014 alone. We aggregate eventbasedestimates to provide national,regional and global estimates, but thedata does not allow for cross-event statisticalanalysis at the sub-national level.Nor is it currently possible to analyse thedata by other location-related variablesrelevant to understanding exposure tohazards and vulnerability, such rural andurban settings, mountainous, river basinand coastal areas. For the same reasoncross-border movements are also notidentifiable across the global data.We have increased our access to informationat the country level over thepast few years in a number of ways. Weundertake our own country missions, andwe cooperate with our colleagues in theNorwegian Refugee Council’s countryoffices and other organisations such asIOM and IFRC that have a local presence.Despite these efforts, our data compilationis still limited relative to the numberof countries where displacement isknown to have occurred. Our researchis also limited by the linguistic scope ofour in-house experts, who work primarilyin English, French and Spanish, and to alesser extent in Italian, German, Russianand Japanese. That said, our access to locallanguage sources has been improvedthrough a partnership with IOM and itsnational and international staff.For the purpose of this report, countriesare defined as independent nationstates, including their overseas territoriesand protectorates. For the few countriescovered where sovereignty is contested- Kosovo/Serbia, Taiwan/China and Palestine- separate information was availableand estimates were possible. Theinclusion or exclusion of these and othercontested territories does not imply anypolitical endorsement or otherwise onIDMC’s part.Though it does not change our estimatesper se, we have adopted the UNnaming of countries and territories moreprecisely this year, and three-digit InternationalOrganisation for Standardisation(ISO) country codes are included in ourdatabase.Temporal: Our data for each year since2008 includes all identified displacementsfor which information was available fromaccepted sources, and that started duringthe calendar year. It also includes afew events associated with disasters thatstarted at the end of the previous year.In such cases, it was sometimes difficultto ascertain whether figures referredto displacement that began in the previousyear or not, but we were careful tominimise the risk of double counting. Theconsideration of a range of reports thatdescribed the disaster context as wellas providing figures was helpful in thissense.The estimates for each event or disasterrepresent the new incidence ofdisplacement, or the number of peoplereported as having become displacedat any point during them. They do notcapture rates of return, the duration ofdisplacement, the pattern of IDPs’ movementsafter their initial flight or peopleliving in prolonged displacement from oneyear to the next.For the time being, we are only ableto report on repeated and complex movementsand protracted situations anecdotallyor via case studies. This representsan important gap in terms of identifyingdisplaced populations likely to be at particularrisk and in need of protection andsustainable solutions. To address the gap,this year’s report includes an additionalannex that lists current long-lasting or80 Global Estimates 2015