Estimates

Countries significantly affected by displacement related toboth conflict and natural hazards in 2014 included India,Pakistan, the Philippines, South Sudan and Sudan.All fragile and conflict-affected states, as defined by the WorldBank, experienced displacement associated with natural hazardsbetween 2008 and 2014. More than 750,000 people weredisplaced by disasters in these countries in 2014 alone.Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacementfollowing disastersRelatively little is known about protracted displacement situationsfollowing disasters. They are poorly monitored and littlereported on. A sample we have collated of 34 ongoing casesaccounts for more than 715,000 people stuck in limbo, andpoints to the likelihood of hundreds of thousands more whohave not yet been recorded.The common assumption that displacement following disastersis short-term and temporary does not hold true in manycases. The cases we identified highlight the plight of peoplewho have been living in protracted displacement for up to 26years.People in such situations receive little attention and are likelyto be left behind in long-term recovery, disaster risk reductionand development processes. Better data and further researchis needed to create a solid evidence base for policymakers’and responders’ decisions.Hazards are diverse in their nature and dynamics. Some persistfor long periods and can become permanent barriers to return.The repeated impacts of frequent short-lived hazards on vulnerablecommunities can also lead to protracted displacement.Displacement following disasters is often fraught with complexand political obstacles to solutions. Obstacles frequentlyencountered include access to land and discrimination againstvulnerable and marginalised groups. Addressing the longlastingsocial and psychological consequences of displacementis as important as the physical rebuilding of homes andinfrastructure.Most of the cases of protracted displacement we identifiedare in low and middle-income developing countries, but thereare also significant examples in rich countries, such as theUS and Japan. Vulnerable and marginalised people in highincomecountries also risk being excluded from solutions.Governments should prioritise measures to advance solutionsand strengthen the resilience of people whose displacementrisks becoming protracted, or has already become so. They includepeople whose former homes have become permanentlyinaccessible or unsafe, informal settlers, poor tenants andpeople who face discrimination based on their class, ethnicity,gender or age. Interventions should be adapted to their specificneeds.When displaced people move on to another location duringor after the emergency phase of a response, their situationshould be verified. They should not be allowed to drop off theradar as “residual caseloads” when humanitarian priorities shifttowards longer-term recovery and development.Local authorities, civil society networks and community-basedorganisations should be mobilised and supported to help identifyand monitor cases of protracted displacement. This is important,given that many of those affected are all but invisible,because they are dispersed among wider populations and inurban areas.The post-2015 global policy agendaThe time is opportune for displacement associated with disastersto be better addressed in major global policy agendaand their implementation in the post-2015 period. They includethe Sustainable Development Goals, the Sendai Frameworkfor Disaster Risk Reduction, action on climate changeunder the UNFCCC and preparatory work for the 2016 WorldHumanitarian Summit.A comprehensive approach to displacement will help to forgestrong links and continuity between these initiatives, and supportthe implementation of global and national commitments.Displacement can no longer be considered as a primarilyhumanitarian issue, nor one that is specific to conflict situations.In most countries affected it has multiple and overlappingcauses, and addressing it requires close coordination ofhumanitarian and development policy and action within andbetween governments.The increasing number of people displaced and at risk ofbecoming trapped in protracted situations following disastersunderscores the urgent need to include people displaced orat risk of becoming so in sustainable and inclusive developmentmeasures.Improved monitoring and data on displacement is neededto measure the achievement of national and global policytargets for inclusive and sustainable development, disasterrisk reduction and management, and adaptation to climatechange.In order to prioritise resources and target responses to wherethey are most needed, a common framework for collecting,interpreting and comparing displacement data should beestablished between government and partner organisationsand across different timeframes.Special attention should be paid to collecting data disaggregatedby gender, age and specific vulnerabilities, and tomonitoring the situation of people caught in long-lasting orchronic displacement.10 Global Estimates 2015