Draft

PDA Readiness Assessment
Final Report 3/29/13
The “amended readiness” reflects interventions that are not currently planned but, in EPS’s
estimation, represent actions at the local, regional, or state level that can enhance the prospects
for development in the PDAs. Table 3 provides illustrations of the types of assumptions that
EPS has included in the “amended readiness” scenarios. Most common among such
enhancements is the assumption that the ability to assemble property and assist in the financing
of infrastructure and buildings would be re-introduced in some meaningful way, despite the
early-2012 dissolution of the Redevelopment Agencies throughout the state.
Sample PDA Readiness Assessment Results
EPS and CD+A have produced “base” and “amended” readiness assessments for each of the 20
PDAs in the sample. The results vary widely based on the multiple factors that contribute to
each area’s readiness. In aggregate, EPS has estimated that the sample PDAs have a “base
readiness” to accommodate 62 percent of the growth allocated to them in Plan Bay Area. The
various enhancements assumed under the “amended readiness” scenarios are estimated to
increase the achievable growth to 80 percent of the Plan Bay Area-allocated housing units. The
models used to evaluate each PDA are included in Appendix A to this report, and are
summarized below.
Regional Centers
Regional Centers are PDAs located in the most urbanized centers of the region’s major cities, and
are assumed under Plan Bay Area to accommodate high volumes of housing growth in the
coming decades. The two Regional Centers selected for this analysis, and the conditions and
conclusions for each, are as follows:
San Francisco Downtown-Van Ness-Geary Corridors—This PDA covers a significant
portion of San Francisco’s financial, cultural, civic, retail, and tourism areas, and is already
developed at high densities. Market support for housing development is strong, and
infrastructure upgrades appear reasonably proportioned to the value of new growth.
Moreover, zoning allowances in this area are permissive of very high densities, and EPS
believes it is reasonable to project that further “upzoning” to allow higher densities may
occur through 2040, as they have over the past several decades. However, the number and
scale of developable sites is limited because the area is already heavily developed. San
Francisco Planning Department “soft sites” analysis has identified 1,415 underutilized parcels,
on which 16,846 new housing units could be developed under current regulations. These
parcels comprise a total of 221 acres of land, which means that the assumed average density
is 76 units per acre. The average size of these underutilized parcels is roughly 7,000 square
feet, or roughly the size of a typical single family lot in a suburban context. The small parcel
sizes represent the primary constraint to new housing in this PDA, and EPS estimates that
the pace of new housing development will actually slow over time as the most developable
sites are built first. Under the “base” scenario, EPS assumes that the City will increase the
zoning capacity of this PDA by 40 percent, and estimates that 17,688 housing units can be
built in this PDA through 2040. The “amended” scenario assumes that upzoning increases
capacity by 50 percent rather than 40 and that regional funding can support some
infrastructure requirements. EPS estimates that 21,479 units could be expected under these
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