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PDA Readiness Assessment Final Report 3/29/13 Transit Neighborhoods Transit Neighborhoods are primarily residential areas, well served by transit, but with existing low- to moderate densities. The two Transit Neighborhoods selected for this analysis, and the conditions and conclusions for each, are as follows: Benicia Downtown—This PDA encompasses the downtown area of Benicia, currently a lowdensity commercial district surrounded by Benicia’s residential neighborhoods. The Downtown has limited capacity for additional multifamily housing that is below the Plan Bay Area allocation. Capacity that does exist would likely be derived from some redevelopment of underutilized properties, including existing single family residential uses, though consistent with the City's downtown "form-based" zoning district. Constraints include a limited market for multi-family residential development and the limited access to regional transit facilities. Financial feasibility limitations will be caused by parcel assembly costs. The existing 40 foot height limit and community opposition to more intensive development may also deter some mixed use projects. Plan Bay Area allocates 930 new housing units to this PDA, well above the 429-unit capacity as measured by CD+A. Under the base scenario, EPS anticipates that 343 housing units can be developed by 2040, or 37 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. The amended scenario assumes that redevelopment-type resources are re-introduced, increasing the City’s parcel assembly abilities and allowing infrastructure financing to take advantage of growing tax increment in the PDA. Under this amended scenario, EPS anticipates that development may increase to 429 units by 2040, or 46 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. Pittsburg Downtown—This PDA encompasses the downtown area of Pittsburg, the historical center of the City. Over the past several decades the City has pursued revitalization and redevelopment of the Downtown with its Redevelopment Agency and planning efforts. As a result, Downtown has created capacity for additional multifamily housing and mixed use development. This capacity is derived from several City-owned properties and redevelopment of underutilized properties, all consistent with the City's downtown zoning districts. Some rezoning of existing commercial properties, allowing mixed use, would expand existing capacity. Infrastructure needed to serve additional Downtown development is largely in place. Constraints to development include a currently limited market in Eastern Contra Costa County for multi-family residential development and the distance of the Downtown to planned transit service (eBART) or the existing Baypoint BART Station. Plan Bay Area allocates 1,823 new housing units to this PDA, well above the 700 unit capacity as measured by CD+A. Under the base scenario, EPS anticipates that 636 housing units can be developed by 2040, or 35 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. The amended scenario assumes the aforementioned rezoning and that redevelopment-type resources are re-introduced, increasing the City’s parcel assembly abilities and allowing infrastructure financing to take advantage of growing tax increment in the PDA. Under this amended scenario, EPS anticipates that development may increase to 990 units by 2040 using all the estimated capacity, or 54 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. Mixed-Use Corridors Mixed-Use Corridors are linear PDAs served by transit lines, and typically feature commercial development extended along a major surface roadway with residential neighborhoods flanking Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 26 P:\122000\121113 PDA Readiness Assessment\EPS\121113_finalreport_032913.docx
PDA Readiness Assessment Final Report 3/29/13 these commercial strips. The three Mixed-Use Corridors selected for this analysis, and the conditions and conclusions for each, are as follows: El Cerrito San Pablo Corridor—This PDA is typical of several along the San Pablo Avenue corridor in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties. It exhibits mostly lower-intensity commercial developments with surface parking interspersed with other uses, including residential buildings. The PDA is largely developed but many parcels are underutilized by comparison to existing planning and zoning allowances. The corridor has excellent transit access afforded by the El Cerrito Plaza and El Norte BART stations, as well as frequent AC Transit bus service along San Pablo Avenue. Mixed use and multifamily development has been occurring along the corridor in the recent decade. Constraints include the need for parcel assembly and related land costs and need for major improvements to several San Pablo Avenue intersections and connections of lateral streets (e.g. Central Avenue) to I-80. CD+A has identified underutilized parcels that can support 2,150 new residential units under current zoning, double the Plan Bay Area allocation through 2040 of 1,020 units. While the market for housing exists and infrastructure deficiencies are manageable, the chief constraints are the small and shallow parcels with diverse ownership, which challenge the ability to construct larger and efficient housing developments. Given these constraints, EPS’s base scenario estimates that 1,288 units could be built through 2040, or 126 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. If the City could assist with parcel assembly through Redevelopment-type authority and funding, and the regional transportation improvements to San Pablo Avenue can be completed, EPS’s amended scenario indicates that 1,718 units may be possible, or 169 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. San Mateo El Camino Real—This PDA is typical of several along El Camino Real in San Mateo County, as it features many lower-intensity commercial developments with surface parking interspersed with other uses, including residential buildings. CD+A has identified underutilized parcels that can support 1,668 new residential units under current zoning, representing 139 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation through 2040 (1,204 units). While the market for housing is strong and infrastructure is generally in place, the chief constraints are the small and shallow parcels with diverse ownership, which challenge the ability to construct larger and efficient housing developments. San Mateo also has a history of “ballot box” planning that makes amendments to heights, densities, and other development regulations difficult. Given these constraints, EPS’s base scenario estimates that 1,001 units could be built through 2040, or 83 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. If the City could assist with parcel assembly through Redevelopment-type authority and funding, EPS’s amended scenario suggests that 1,168 units may be possible, or 97 percent of the Plan Bay Area allocation. Sunnyvale El Camino Real Corridor—This PDA is similar to San Mateo’s El Camino Real corridor, in that it features a mix of lower-intensity development along the major roadway, but is flanked by lower-density residential neighborhoods on either side. CD+A estimates the current capacity in this corridor to be around 2,850 units, well short of the 4,412 units allocated in Plan Bay Area. Because the City’s “Horizon 2035” committee has already explored the possibility of upzoning in the corridor, EPS has assumed that planned capacity would be increased sometime before 2030 even under the base scenario. Moreover, market conditions are strong and infrastructure needs are relatively modest. Still, the challenges of redeveloping existing uses on small parcels are likely to constrain growth in this PDA. EPS’s Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 27 P:\122000\121113 PDA Readiness Assessment\EPS\121113_finalreport_032913.docx
Page 1 and 2: Draft March 2013 Strategy for a Sus
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Metropolitan Transportation Commiss
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