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Table of Contents 1. REPORT SUMMARY AND FINDINGS .............................................................................. 1 Plan Bay Area Background ......................................................................................... 1 Process of the PDA Readiness Assessment ................................................................... 1 Summary of Findings and Recommendations ................................................................ 2 2. STUDY BACKGROUND ............................................................................................. 7 3. PDA DEVELOPMENT READINESS ASSESSMENT ................................................................ 9 Study Methodology ................................................................................................... 9 Sample PDA Readiness Assessment Results ............................................................... 19 Overall Findings of PDA Readiness ............................................................................ 28 4. READINESS OF NON-PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT AREA LOCATIONS ......................................... 30 Planned Capacity and Policy Constraints .................................................................... 30 Market Constraints .................................................................................................. 31 Infrastructure and Financing Constraints .................................................................... 33 Summary Regarding Non-PDA Development Prospects ................................................ 33 5. POLICY ACTIONS TO IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT READINESS ................................................. 35 Local Resources and Actions ..................................................................................... 36 Regional Resources and Actions ................................................................................ 39 State Resources and Actions .................................................................................... 42 Appendix A: PDA Readiness Criteria Worksheets List of Tables Table 1 Summary of PDA Readiness Assessment Results ................................................ 3 Table 2 Capacity Assessment for Selected Priority Development Areas ........................... 11 Table 3 PDA Readiness Criteria Worksheet .................................................................. 15
1. REPORT SUMMARY AND FINDINGS Plan Bay Area Background The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) have prepared Plan Bay Area, the first integrated long-range transportation and land-use/housing plan for the San Francisco Bay Area that addresses the challenge of accommodating projected growth. Plan Bay Area responds to SB 375 which requires the adoption of a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) to be updated every four years that aligns transportation investments with projected growth to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light-duty trucks. To meet these goals, the Plan’s pattern of growth reduces the distance between jobs and housing, thereby reducing commutes. It distributes growth to areas with greater accessibility to transit, job centers, shopping, schools, parks, recreation and other amenities, while planning for environments that better support walking and biking. Plan Bay Area projects that the San Francisco Bay Area will grow by over 2 million people, 1 million jobs and 660,000 housing units by 2040. Much of this growth is anticipated to be located in Priority Development Areas (PDAs), or designated areas identified by local jurisdictions to be appropriate for residential and commercial development. Approximately 80 percent of the anticipated growth for Plan Bay Area is allocated to PDAs. The purpose of this report is to provide a deeper understanding and independent assessment of the readiness and feasibility of PDAs to accommodate the number of housing units envisioned by Plan Bay Area. This assessment will assist in implementation of the Plan today and in the future. By understanding the challenges to development across an diverse range of PDAs with varying market conditions, regional funding, policy, and advocacy efforts can be focused in areas that need it most. As the Bay Area’s first SCS, Plan Bay Area also acknowledges that much more needs to be done to ensure that PDAs realize their full development potential, and outlines strategies and initial legislative changes needed to support the proposed pattern of growth. This work will continue to be refined in future. Process of the PDA Readiness Assessment MTC commissioned the urban economics consulting firm Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) to conduct a Development Readiness Assessment of the PDAs in relation to the new regional housing growth forecasts and other policies of Plan Bay Area. Building upon a Development Readiness Survey conducted by ABAG and MTC in 2010, this assessment applied new research and provided in-depth analysis on a sample of 20 representative PDAs. The new assessment estimates the ability of the PDAs in the sample to accommodate new residential development consistent with Plan Bay Area residential forecasts. The report estimates the amount of housing that can be produced assuming baseline current conditions, and the increase in the number of housing units that could be produced if select key barriers to Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 1 P:\122000\121113 PDA Readiness Assessment\EPS\121113_finalreport_032913.docx
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Metropolitan Transportation Commiss
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