URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION

Figure 1.1 Economic growth in Africa and emerging and developing countries, 2013–2016
7
6
6.1 6.1
5.7 5.7
5
REAL GDP GROWTH (%)
4
3
2
1
4.0 3.9 3.7
2.7
2.4
1.0
2.1
3.0
1.7
0
-1
-2
0.1
-0.5
-1.0
2013 2014 2015 2016e
Africa (excluding Libya)
Latin America and the Caribbean
East and South Asia
South-Eastern Europe
Source: Based on UNDESA (2016a) and EIU (2016)
Note: e=estimates.
1.1 AFRICA’S GROWTH OUT TURN IN 2016
Economic growth in Africa fell by more than half
from 3.7 per cent in 2015 to 1.7 per cent in 2016
amid weak global economic conditions, still-low
(even if rising) oil and commodity prices and
adverse weather conditions (drought). This decline
also reflected weakening economic conditions in
Africa’s largest economies in 2016—Nigeria (-1.6
per cent), South Africa (0.6 per cent) and Angola
(0.8 per cent)—and growth deceleration in Algeria
(2.9 per cent), Egypt (3.4 per cent) and Morocco
(1.7 per cent). Performances diverged: Côte d’Ivoire
saw 8 per cent growth in 2016, Kenya 6 per cent,
Morocco 1.7 per cent and South Africa 0.6 per cent,
but Nigeria recorded a 1.6 per cent contraction and
Equatorial Guinea one of 4.5 per cent.
The decline in commodity prices since 2014
affected current accounts and government revenue,
bearing down on domestic currencies and creating
inflationary pressures. African countries need to
adopt a counter-cyclical fiscal stance, and those
continuing to achieve high economic growth such
as Côte d’Ivoire (8 per cent), Kenya (6 per cent),
Ethiopia (5.4 per cent), Tanzania (7 per cent) and
Senegal (6.3 per cent), should build up fiscal buffers.
GROWTH CONTINUED TO
DECELERATE, VARIABLY BY
ECONOMIC GROUPING
Commodity prices started to recover since the
end of first quarter in 2016 after falling for the last
two years, but are still below their 2014 annual
average level. Growth in the economic groupings—
oil-exporting, oil-importing and mineral-rich
economies—decelerated, to 0.8 per cent, 2.5 and 2.2