URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION

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90 ECONOMIC REPORT ON AFRICA 2017 Figure 3.2 Mozambique’s urbanization, 1960–2014 POPULATION (MILLIONS) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Rural population Urban population Source: World Development Indicators. Figure 3.3 Rwanda’s urbanization, 1960–2014 14 12 POPULATION (MILLIONS) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Rural population Urban population Source: World Development Indicators. was rapid in the post-independence period, slowed in the 1990s and picked up again in the 2000s (UN-Habitat, 2010a). Africa’s urban population is likely to triple by 2050, with Africa and Asia accounting for nearly 90 per cent of the world’s urban population growth (UNDESA, 2014). Urbanization “occurs now often in a span of about 30 years, as opposed to the more leisurely pace of urbanization in today’s developed countries which played out over 100–150 years. Rapid urbanization is traumatic…” (Henderson, 2010, p. 16). Urbanization
Figure 3.4 Urban agglomerations in Africa, 1990 and 2030 Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Some of Africa’s small and medium-sized cities are set to register major growth by 2030. Mauritania Mali Cabo Verde Senegal Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Guinea Benin Sierra Leone Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Togo Liberia Niger Nigeria Cameroon Sudan Chad South Sudan Central African Republic Eritrea Ethiopia Djibouti Somalia 1990 0 - 500,000 500,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 2,500,000 Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome and Principe Gabon Congo Democratic Republic of the Congo Angola Zambia Rwanda Burundi Uganda Tanzania Kenya Malawi Mozambique Seychelles Comoros 2,500,001 - 5,000,000 > 5,000,000 2030 0 - 500,000 500,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 2,500,000 2,500,001 - 5,000,000 > 5,000,000 Namibia Botswana South Africa in Africa excluding North Africa went from 15 per cent in 1960—around the same as Europe in the 17th century—to 38 per cent today, which is higher than South Asia. The number of urban residents in Africa nearly doubled between 1995 and 2015 and is projected to almost double again by 2035 (Barofsky, Siba and Grabinsky, 2016). There has also been a shift globally in the urbanization–income nexus: countries now have a higher level of urbanization than countries at the same income in the past. Globalization and imports of cheap food have made urbanization possible without a domestic agricultural surplus (Fox, 2014). Naturally, African subregions and countries are urbanizing at different speeds (chapter 2). East Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Madagascar Mauritius The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Data Source: World Population Prospect-UNDESA GiSS/ACS/ECA 2016 Africa is the least urbanized and urbanizing fastest, while Southern Africa is the most urbanized and moving more slowly. The trends in Mozambique and Rwanda, for example, reflect their economic dynamics, policies and conflicts (figures 3.2 and 3.3). Eight countries are largely rural with less than one quarter of their populations living in urban areas. However, the least urbanized countries are forecast to double their urbanization in 35 years (UNDESA, 2014). In contrast a few countries are experiencing slow and even negative urbanization, including Mauritius, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. Countries differ in their spatial pattern of urban growth. Most have a higher share of their urban AN OVERVIEW OF <strong>URBANIZATION</strong> <strong>AND</strong> STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA 91
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URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION
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CCONTENTS LIST OF BOXES, FIGURES &
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chapter 5 URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRI
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CHAPTER 1 (CONT) Figure 1.11 Growth
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CHAPTER 4 BOXES Box 4.1 Drivers, en
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED AEO AfDB
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UN-Habitat UNICEF US USAID WDI WTO
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The lead consultant, Mr. Gulelat Ke
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FFOREWORD Urbanization is a mega-tr
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articulated. Yet, industrial target
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harnessing opportunities from rapid
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A diverse urban system can offer in
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Cities and urban agglomerations sho
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Figure 1.1 Economic growth in Afric
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In 2016, the generally weak world e
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Box 1.2 SOME POLICY RESPONSES OF AF
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year, driven by slower growth in Al
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associated with a decline in the va
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Figure 1.7 Productivity growth by A
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Page 45 and 46: Box 1.3 THE CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE
Page 47 and 48: Figure 1.15 Gross domestic savings,
Page 49 and 50: are seeking to finance public inves
Page 51 and 52: Figure 1.19 Africa’s growth prosp
Page 53 and 54: Box 1.4 CHINA’S ENGAGEMENT IN AFR
Page 55 and 56: REFERENCES AfDB-OECD-UNDP 2016. Afr
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Page 119 and 120: Figure 4.1 The urbanization-industr
Page 121 and 122: 4.1 DRIVERS: URBAN DEMAND AND SHIFT
Page 123 and 124: FOOD VALUE CHAIN AND RURAL-URBAN LI
Page 125 and 126: But for the construction sector to
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Page 131 and 132: More recent theories of industrial
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Page 137 and 138: Figure 4.9 Top two ranked countries
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Table 4.4 Industrial sector charact
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Box 4.5 A PATH TO FORMALIZATION Suc
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Arusha, Tanzania Beira, Mozambique
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lengthening travel times and creati
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in South Asia (Yepes, Pierce and Fo
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ҋҋ Linking sector strategies, nat
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Agglomeration economies are powerfu
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Gutman, J., A. Sy and S. Chattopadh
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ENDNOTES 1 The link between urbaniz
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Still, policies that are well targe
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Figure 5.1 50,000 Four basic countr
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5.2 USING URBAN DEMAND TO DRIVE IND
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BOX 5.1 CONT. GRANTING POLICY SUPPO
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uilding superstructures are often r
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Box 5.3 RWANDA’S TRADEABLE SERVIC
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the surrounding fertile agricultura
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Despite urban primacy, secondary ci
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REPUBLIC OF CONGO A functional urba
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5.4 OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO AGGLOMER
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Box 5.5 COST-EFFECTIVE AND FAIR TEN
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Even non-BRT systems can improve tr
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in the economy as a whole, through
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5.5 INTEGRATED POLICIES TO LINK URB
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To foster industrialization, polici
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evenue is only 15.6 per cent of its
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REFERENCES Ackah, C., C. Adjasi and
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NISR (National Institute of Statist
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202 Table 6.1 Costs and benefits of
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Despite the recent slowdown of the
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