URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION

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68 Table 2.5 Total fertility rate per 1,000 live births, by quintile ECONOMIC REPORT ON AFRICA 2017 North Africa East Africa Central Africa West Africa Southern Africa Average (unweighted) POOREST QUINTILE RICHEST QUINTILE Algeria 3.1 2.3 Mauritania 5.7 3.1 Burundi 6.2 5.7 Comoros 6.7 3.4 Congo, Dem. Rep. 7.6 4.9 Ethiopia 6.0 2.8 Kenya 7.0 2.9 Madagascar 6.8 2.7 Tanzania 7.0 3.2 Uganda 7.9 4.0 Cameroon 7.0 3.3 Chad 6.8 6.0 Central African Republic 7.0 4.6 Congo, Rep. 7.0 3.8 Gabon 6.6 2.9 São Tomé and Príncipe 5.6 3.9 Benin 6.1 3.9 Burkina Faso 7.1 3.7 Côte d’Ivoire 6.7 3.2 Gambia 6.7 3.8 Ghana 6.0 2.9 Guinea 6.5 3.4 Guinea-Bissau 6.4 2.8 Liberia 6.6 2.8 Mali 6.7 4.7 Niger 8.2 6.1 Nigeria 7.0 3.9 Senegal 7.3 3.4 Sierra Leone 6.1 3.0 Togo 6.3 3.5 Malawi 6.4 3.3 Mozambique 7.2 3.7 Namibia 5.5 2.3 Swaziland 4.8 2.7 Zambia 7.1 3.0 Zimbabwe 5.3 2.6 Source: DHS data for latest years: http://www.statcompiler.com/en/. SUBREGIONAL AVERAGE (POOREST QUINTILE) SUBREGIONAL AVERAGE (RICHEST QUINTILE) 4.4 2.8 6.9 3.7 6.7 4.1 6.7 3.7 6.1 2.9 6.5 3.6
IMPACT OF POPULATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH Per capita GDP growth provides a more realistic picture of Africa’s economic position than the aggregate figure (figure 2.8). When 2.6 per cent (table 2.6) is lopped off aggregate growth for population growth, annual per capita growth in the last quarter century comes in at just 1.1 per cent, which is far from enough to reduce poverty quickly. The table also helps to explain, with contracting per capita GDP in the 1990s, why the poverty headcount ratio actually increased in that decade. KEY CONCLUSIONS In spite of strong growth witnessed in most countries in Africa since the early 2000s, poverty reduction has been slow and the number of people in poverty on the continent has stayed almost constant since 2002. A high poverty gap ratio, high initial inequality and slow growth in agriculture, where the bulk of the A high poverty gap ratio, high initial inequality and slow growth in agriculture, where the bulk of the poor find a living, have all contributed to damping the poverty-reducing impact of economic growth. poor find a living, have all contributed to damping the poverty-reducing impact of economic growth. And, despite the impressive progress in enhancing child survival, the decline in fertility has stalled, particularly in 14 countries that account for half the continent’s population. The slow overall decline in fertility may delay the demographic transition in Africa that is necessary for the demographic dividend. In particular, and as now discussed, the slow decline in fertility and high adolescent fertility rates limit women’s opportunities to acquire human capital and become full economic participants. GDP GROWTH (ANNUAL %) Figure 2.8 Aggregate and per capita annual GDP growth in Africa other than North Africa, 1990–2015 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Table 2.6 Aggregate GDP growth (annual %) GDP per capita growth (annual %) Source: Based on data from World Development Indicators (2016). Difference between annual average aggregate and per capita GDP growth rates in Africa other than North Africa, 1990–2015 (%) AGGREGATE GDP GROWTH PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH DIFFERENCE 1990–2000 2.46 -0.12 2.58 2001–2010 5.28 2.70 2.58 2011–2015 3.03 0.44 2.59 1990–2015 3.66 1.07 2.59 Source: Based on data from UNCTAD (2016). Population growth rate from UNECA (2015). ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE, 1980–2011 2.6 RECENT SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICA 69
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URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION
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CCONTENTS LIST OF BOXES, FIGURES &
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chapter 5 URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRI
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CHAPTER 1 (CONT) Figure 1.11 Growth
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CHAPTER 4 BOXES Box 4.1 Drivers, en
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED AEO AfDB
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UN-Habitat UNICEF US USAID WDI WTO
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The lead consultant, Mr. Gulelat Ke
Page 17 and 18: FFOREWORD Urbanization is a mega-tr
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Page 21 and 22: harnessing opportunities from rapid
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Page 25 and 26: Cities and urban agglomerations sho
Page 27 and 28: Figure 1.1 Economic growth in Afric
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Page 55 and 56: REFERENCES AfDB-OECD-UNDP 2016. Afr
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Figure 4.1 The urbanization-industr
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4.1 DRIVERS: URBAN DEMAND AND SHIFT
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FOOD VALUE CHAIN AND RURAL-URBAN LI
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But for the construction sector to
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The link between GDP and formal hou
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Figure 4.7 Employment in constructi
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More recent theories of industrial
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Table 4.3 Results of selected econo
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expensive interventions to support
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Figure 4.9 Top two ranked countries
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study 16 —makes the following con
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Table 4.4 Industrial sector charact
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Box 4.5 A PATH TO FORMALIZATION Suc
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Arusha, Tanzania Beira, Mozambique
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lengthening travel times and creati
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in South Asia (Yepes, Pierce and Fo
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ҋҋ Linking sector strategies, nat
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Agglomeration economies are powerfu
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Gutman, J., A. Sy and S. Chattopadh
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ENDNOTES 1 The link between urbaniz
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Still, policies that are well targe
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Figure 5.1 50,000 Four basic countr
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5.2 USING URBAN DEMAND TO DRIVE IND
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BOX 5.1 CONT. GRANTING POLICY SUPPO
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uilding superstructures are often r
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Box 5.3 RWANDA’S TRADEABLE SERVIC
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the surrounding fertile agricultura
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Despite urban primacy, secondary ci
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REPUBLIC OF CONGO A functional urba
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5.4 OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO AGGLOMER
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Box 5.5 COST-EFFECTIVE AND FAIR TEN
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Even non-BRT systems can improve tr
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in the economy as a whole, through
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5.5 INTEGRATED POLICIES TO LINK URB
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To foster industrialization, polici
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evenue is only 15.6 per cent of its
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REFERENCES Ackah, C., C. Adjasi and
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NISR (National Institute of Statist
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202 Table 6.1 Costs and benefits of
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Despite the recent slowdown of the
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