The Global Water Crisis: Addressing an Urgent Security - Unu-inweh ...

Jury and Vaux project that the number of water-scarce countries could rise to 29 and the number of water-stressed
countries is anticipated to rise to 19 by 2025. The combined population of these 48 countries is estimated to be 2.9 billion
(Jury and Vaux, 2007). In addition, economic development is likely to fuel increased demands for water both directly,
as in the growth in water-consuming industries, and indirectly, in the form of dietary and other lifestyle changes which
tend to be more water consumptive.
A study of 92 developing countries (Vaux, 2012) shows that, as higher incomes drive improvements in diets around the
world, as much as an additional 5,200 cubic kilometres may be needed annually for agriculture alone by 2050. Growth
of agricultural water demand of this magnitude will put enormous pressure on existing water supplies in many parts of
the world, leaving little left to support natural ecosystem functioning or other essential ecosystem services. In short, the
picture is almost inescapably one of growing demand matched against static or shrinking supplies.
There is some urgency in responding to this important global trend. It is now recognized that in order to provide water
and other benefits to people, nature needs water, too. Water allocated to the environment is critical in supporting the
production of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The failure to supply adequate water for environmental services could
result in a decline in the capacity of the environment to provide food and to support modern agricultural practices. The
continued reallocation of water away from environmental support towards agriculture and other consumptive uses may
in fact threaten the carrying capacity of the earth itself.
Unfortunately, however, a full 40% of humanity is already competing directly with nature for water. As a result, we are
beginning to see some frightening convergences (Safriel, 2011). If nature is to have the adequate amount of water it needs
in order to provide important basic ecological services, then less water will be available for agriculture, which means
that there will not be enough food for people. If, on the other hand, priority for water allocation is given to agriculture
in order to sustain growing populations, then there will not be enough water to allow nature to sustain its fundamental,
long-term, planetary, life-supporting functions and self-regulation.
The resolution of such high stakes trade-offs and the associated conflicts such choices will generate are likely to be very
difficult to resolve peacefully, especially given that the demands for water from other sectors and for other uses is not
likely to remain static (Vaux, 2012).
Water quality and quantity concerns will become international transboundary political issues as the global agricultural
sector tries to achieve the nearly impossible goal of doubling food production while at the same time reducing total water
use by 10% by mid-century. The next wars may not be conflicts declared between sovereign states, but undeclared civil
wars between cities and surrounding agricultural regions over the timing and extent of allocations.
But water availability will not just affect food production. As has been pointed out elsewhere in this volume, water and
energy are also linked. The amount of water available to a given nation will determine its industrial capacity and the
quality of life that citizens enjoy as a result of nature receiving the water it needs to make places worth living. Prosperous
countries in the future will be those that have enough water for food, cities, industry and nature – and that know how
to ensure that each of these gets the amount of water that it needs (Solomon, 2010).
Some observers, like Solomon (2010), have argued that a new world order is about to emerge out of the collision between
population and economic growth and our planet’s rapidly changing hydrology. Already, he claims, the divide is growing
globally between those nations that have adequate water supplies to meet the current and projected needs of their
people and the landscapes upon which they live, and those that that are unable to meet these needs on a consistent basis.
This explosive fault-line is likely to widen across the entire 21 st century political, social and economic landscape. Tension
between water ‘Haves’ and ‘Have-Nots’ will grow between those who control upstream water flows and downstream
neighbours who do not receive all the water they need for industry and cities. The gap will widen even more between
nations that have sufficient water supplies to grow their own food and support their growing populations, and those who
do not. As these gaps grow, we should expect greater tension over water in many parts of the world.
Will the Next Wars Be Fought Over Water?
Part 1
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