eTheses Repository - University of Birmingham

Over the next ten years the population of London is expected to grow by 800,000 people,
causing a challenge to the capital to provide housing and infrastructure in a sustainable
manner within its boundary (London Assembly 2005), whilst maintaining existing open
green spaces and not encroaching on the Green Belt (Thomas 1970). Between 1989 and
1999 1,000 hectares of green spaces and playing fields were lost to development (London
Assembly 2005; London Assembly 2006), and green space is continuing to be lost,
although at a slower rate. The development of brown field land (defined as land currently
or previously occupied by a structure) is identified as a possible strategy to meet this
challenge (London Assembly 2005).
At the same time major urban development is also planned to extend the Greater London
area to cover much more of the South-East and it is considered highly likely that this
development will impact local weather (Collier 2006). For this reason the consideration of
urban effects should be included in the planning of the built environment of the future, to
ensure an optimal environment for human well being.
Model domains for the London area were set up in which some of these forms of
urbanisation are represented. The forms of urbanisation which can be simulated using the
METRAS+BEP model are limited to land cover changes, since it is not possible to directly
represent changes in the population in the urban area. Despite current trends showing a
decline in the population of London (Lee 1992), on the whole the existing extent of the
built up area is unlikely to decline, and the increase in the average built up area per person
(defined as the reciprocal of the density) is likely to drive an increase in lower populated
suburban areas.
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