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Hulme, M. and E. Barrow (1997). The Climate of the British Isles. London, Routledge. Hulme, M., G. J. Jenkins, X. Lu, J. R. Turnpenny, T. D. Mitchell, R. G. Jones, J. Lowe, J. M. Murphy, D. Hassell, P. Boorman, R. McDonald and S. Hill (2002). Climate change scenarios for the UK: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. Hunt, J. (2005). London's Environment. Prospects for a Sustainable World City. London, Imperial College Press. Hunter, L., I. D. Watson and G. T. Johnson (1991). "Modeling air flow regimes in urban canyons." Energy and Buildings 15: 315-324. Ichinose, T. (2001). Regional warming related to Land Use Change during the Past 135 Years In Japan. Present and Future Modeling Global Environmental Change:Toward Integrated Modeling. T. Matsumo and H. Kida, TERRAPUB: 433- 440. Ichinose, T., K. Shimodozono and K. Hanaki (1999). "Impact of anthropogenic heat on urban climate in Tokyo." Atmospheric Environment 33: 3897-3909. Inoue, T. and F. Kimura (2004). "Urban effects on low-level clouds around the Tokyo metropolitan area on clear summer days." Geophysical Research Letters 31. IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, UK. Jauregui, E. (1990). "Influence of a large urban park on temperature and convective precipitation in a tropical city." Journal of Energy and Buildings 15-16: 457-463. Jauregui, E. (1997). "Heat island development in Mexico City." Atmospheric Environment 31: 3821-3831. Jauregui, E. (2005). "Possible impact of urbanization on the thermal climate of some large cities in Mexico." Atmosfera 18(4): 247-252. Jauregui, E. and E. Luyando (1999). "Global radiation attenuation by air pollution and its effects on the thermal climate in Mexico City." International Journal of Climatology 19: 683-694. Jauregui, E. and E. Romales (1996). "Urban effects on convective precipitation in Mexico City." Atmospheric Environment 30(20): 3383-3389. Jenerette, G. D., S. L. Harlan, A. Brazel, N. Jones, L. Larsen and W. L. Stefanov (2007). "Regional relationships between surface temperature, vegetation, and human settlement in a rapidly urbanizing ecosystem." Landscape Ecology 22: 353-365. 250
Jin, M. and J. M. Shepherd (2005). "Inclusion of urban landscape in a climate model. How can satellite data help?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 5: 681- 689. Johnson, H., R. S. Kovats, G. McGregor, J. R. Stedman, M. Gibbs and H. Walton (2005). "The impact of the 2003 heatwave on daily mortality in England and Wales and the use of rapid weekly mortality estimates." Eurosurveillance 10(7-8): 168-171. Jones, P. D., P. Y. Groisman, M. Coughlan, N. Plummer, W. C. Wong and T. R. Karl (1990). "Assessment of Urbanization Effects in Time Series of Surface Air Temperature over Land." Nature 347: 169-177. Jonsson, P. (2004). "Vegetation as an urban climate control in the subtropical city of Gabarone, Botswana." International Journal of Climatology 24: 1307-1322. Kalnay, E. and M. Cai (2003). "Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate." Nature 423(6939): 528-531. Kalnay, E., M. Cai, H. Li and J. Tobin (2006). "Estimation of the impact of land-surface forcings on temperature trends in eastern United States." Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 111(D6). Kan, H., S. J. London, H. Chen, G. Song, G. Chen, L. Jiang, N. Zhao, Y. Zhang and B. Chen (2007). "Diurnal temperature range and daily mortality in Shanghai, China." Environmental Research 103: 424-431. Karaca, M., M. Tayanc and H. Toros (1995). "Effects of urbanization on climate of Istanbul and Ankara." Atmospheric Environment 29(23): 3411-3421. Karl, T. R., H. F. Diaz and G. Kukla (1988). "Urbanization: Its detection and effect in the United States Climate Record." Journal of Climate 1: 1099-1123. Klaic, Z. B., T. Nitis, I. Kos and N. Moussiopoulos (2002). "Modification of the local winds due to hypothetical urbanization of the Zagrep surroundings." Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 79(1-2): 1-12. Klysik, K. and K. Fortuniak (1999). "Temporal and spatial characteristics of the urban heat island of Lodz, Poland." Atmospheric Environment 33: 3885-3895. Kolokotroni, M., I. Giannitsaris and R. Watkins (2006). "The effect of the London urban heat island on building summer cooling demand and night ventilation strategies." Solar Energy 80: 383-392. Kolokotroni, M., Y. Zhang and R. Watkins (2007). "The London Heat Island and building cooling design." Solar Energy 81: 102-110. 251
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MODELLING THE IMPACT OF URBANISATIO
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Abstract Urban areas have well docu
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Abbreviations aLMo Meteo Swiss oper
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4.2.2 Impact of the urban area on t
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List of figures Figure 2.1: Scales
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Figure 4.21: Diurnal variation of t
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Figure 6.16: Mean horizontal wind s
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Chapter 1: Introduction Urban areas
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with trends derived from a statisti
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scheme, and therefore it was necess
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The effects of future urban expansi
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2.1 Urban climate modification Urba
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latitudes (Taha 1997), and this is
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100 - 200 m 1 - 2 km 10 - 20 km 100
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epresentatively sample the underlyi
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over the city centre, convergent fl
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Cold islands can also occur in urba
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of the atmosphere. For example, it
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amount of solar radiation absorbed
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(Peterson 1969; Changnon 1992; Coll
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2.3 Justification of modelling appr
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Trusilova (2006) carried out a stud
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constant flux surface layer in the
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the vertical distribution of vegeta
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using different building parameters
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Table 2.2: SWOT analysis for the ME
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Fraction of urban land cover [%] Fi
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The built up area of London can cur
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Figure 2.5(a-f): Builtup area of Lo
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• Mainly high density development
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climate of London, and currently on
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For mid-latitude cities, of which L
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warming of 0.04 °C per decade, in
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out differences in the urban heat i
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adopted in previous studies ranges
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y the implementation of a specific
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A prognostic equation is used to re
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At the surface the temperature is c
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The boundary conditions used for th
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are defined in the file m1tini_TAPE
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The terms representing the impact o
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3.2.1 Calculation of dynamical effe
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θ k ∆z / 2 H Siu (Equation 3.12)
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3.3 Implementation of BEP in METRAS
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difficulties in the linking of the
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Table 3.3: Description of how the 2
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3.5.2 Orography data Orography data
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epresenting suburban development a
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Table 3.7 shows a summary of the MI
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3.6 Summary In this PhD study the m
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temperature, air pressure and air d
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Potential temperature [K] Figure 4.
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Wind speed [ms -1 ] Figure 4.2: Ver
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4.2.1 Horizontal cross sections of
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affected, as the flow bends around
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Downwind of the city on the other h
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the city, which is expected since t
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Potential temperature [K] Figure 4.
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simulation this effect is verticall
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differences are expected during day
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tend to cool the surface, but can a
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Figure 4.15 shows the vertical prof
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appropriate value for these paramet
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0.61) and that of conventional grav
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Difference in potential temperature
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educed near surface temperatures of
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fraction was increased in steps of
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works. In the control simulation th
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characterised by the albedo, therma
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is higher by a similar amount. The
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(a) Potential temperature [K] (c) T
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Figure 4.25 shows the vertical sect
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tests also reproduced well document
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Chapter 5: Evaluation of the urbani
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Fraction of urban land cover [%] Fi
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For the summers of 1995-2000 the an
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Table 5.2: Selected periods of simu
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commonly used as a rural reference
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newly urbanised version of the METR
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adiation trapping in the street can
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the second day of simulation (31 st
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Air temperature ( o C) 35 30 25 20
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the model. The smaller percentage o
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Wind speed (ms -1 ) Wind direction
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London Heathrow Airport (LHR) Wind
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A full set of hourly wind speed and
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contain both roofs exposed to direc
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Chapter 6: The effects of urban lan
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simulations with two hypothetical s
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dependent on the r(i,j), the radial
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centre of the domain was more than
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6.2 Effects of the current state of
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During daytime the shape of the are
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The calculation was performed for t
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ecause finding a rural reference po
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development (GLA 2006) and differen
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6.2.4 Wind speed and direction Klai
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Wind speed and direction (ms -1 ) F
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“urban” cells to be affected by
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the urban surface. Many other studi
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eason the near surface potential te
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Mean potential temperature at 12:00
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where A(x) is the area affected by
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Table 6.8: REI for the RADIUS, DENS
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COMBINED series also show a reducti
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for all runs in the series, and cor
Page 213 and 214: The runs are then combined into one
Page 215 and 216: to be more linear than the smaller
Page 217 and 218: The total reduction in mean wind sp
Page 219 and 220: The REI showed that for all the var
Page 221 and 222: Higher temperatures in the urban ar
Page 223 and 224: Over the next ten years the populat
Page 225 and 226: 7.1.1 EXPANSION series The first sc
Page 227 and 228: Another cause of this form of expan
Page 229 and 230: 7.2 Effects of urbanisation for the
Page 231 and 232: Mean near surface potential tempera
Page 233 and 234: UHI intensity (K) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5
Page 235 and 236: temperature, an increase in the mea
Page 237 and 238: 7.2.3 Wind speed The effect of the
Page 239 and 240: 7.3 Effects of urbanisation for the
Page 241 and 242: mean near surface potential tempera
Page 243 and 244: 7.3.2 Wind speed Changes in the mea
Page 245 and 246: expansion strategies such as the re
Page 247 and 248: should also be considered to avoid
Page 249 and 250: models, for example Martilli et al.
Page 251 and 252: cities (Baker et al. 2002). Already
Page 253 and 254: uses, painting the roofs white to r
Page 255 and 256: The full influence of different met
Page 257 and 258: References Abercrombie, P. (1945).
Page 259 and 260: Bottema, M. (1997). "Urban Roughnes
Page 261 and 262: Craig, K. J. and R. D. Bornstein (2
Page 263: Grimmond, C. S. B. and T. R. Oke (2
Page 267 and 268: Lemonsu, A. and V. Masson (2002). "
Page 269 and 270: Nitis, T., Z. B. Klaic and N. Mouss
Page 271 and 272: alance in urban areas - Recent adva
Page 273 and 274: Seaman, N. L. (2000). "Meteorologic
Page 275 and 276: Therry, G. and P. Lacarrere (1983).
Page 277: Yague, C., E. Zurita and A. Martine
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