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Health sector reform in Mali, 1989-1996 - TropMed Central Antwerp ...

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86<br />

From simulation to a provisional operat<strong>in</strong>g budget<br />

All th<strong>in</strong>gs considered, establish<strong>in</strong>g a ComHC seemed a difficult and risky<br />

venture; it could not be done without a feasibility study that took <strong>in</strong>to<br />

account the responsibilities, prelim<strong>in</strong>ary revenue, and negotiation of subsidy<br />

programmes (e.g., by the State and the local development committee). A<br />

simple software package was developed for the feasibility studies based on<br />

observations from other cases. 78 Us<strong>in</strong>g the software, one could simulate the<br />

viability of health areas accord<strong>in</strong>g to the configuration of the health area<br />

(total population and population liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the centre, number<br />

of villages), fixed charges, expected attendance for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g near<br />

the centre and those liv<strong>in</strong>g more than 5 km from the centre, preventive<br />

coverage, and range of fees as well as the marg<strong>in</strong> on sale of drugs. 79<br />

Population liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the health centre. Fig. 15 shows<br />

hypothetical attendance for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the centre as<br />

0.45 new cases per <strong>in</strong>habitant per year, and 0.20 new cases per <strong>in</strong>habitant<br />

per year for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g more than 5 km from the health centre.<br />

Beyond 5 km from the health centre, attendance for curative care is very<br />

low and contributes only marg<strong>in</strong>ally to revenues.<br />

It turned out that hypothesiz<strong>in</strong>g 0.20 new cases per <strong>in</strong>habitant per<br />

year was too optimistic. The actual figure was closer to 0.10. On the other<br />

hand, assum<strong>in</strong>g 0.45 cases for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the health<br />

centre underestimated the situation <strong>in</strong> a number of rural health centres.<br />

The simulation tested different hypotheses accord<strong>in</strong>g to the size of the total<br />

population of the health area and its distribution, expressed as the<br />

percentage of the population liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km from the health centre (30,<br />

50, and 70%, respectively). Revenues from operations became positive for<br />

communities of 10,000 <strong>in</strong>habitants, 50% of whom were liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km<br />

of the centre. In reality, and consider<strong>in</strong>g the fact that the State needed to<br />

cover depreciation, a critical mass of 3,000-4,000 <strong>in</strong>habitants liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5<br />

km was sufficient to assure the viability of the area.<br />

78 M<strong>in</strong>istère de la Santé, de la Solidarité et des Personnes Agées - UNICEF (1994) Le<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancement des centres de santé communautaires: utilization d’un modèle de simulation<br />

basé sur des expériences en République du <strong>Mali</strong>: description du modèle. 7p. Bamako:<br />

M<strong>in</strong>istère de la Santé, de la Solidarité et des Personnes Agées - UNICEF.<br />

79 Traore Nafo F, de Bethune X & El Abassi A (1997) Le f<strong>in</strong>ancement des centres de santé<br />

périphériques; enseignment d’un modèle de simulation. In: Brunet-Jailly E (ed) Innover dans<br />

les systèmes de santé. Expériences d’Afrique de l’Ouest, 241-256. Paris: Editions Karthala.<br />

Studies <strong>in</strong> HSO&P,20,2003

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