Health sector reform in Mali, 1989-1996 - TropMed Central Antwerp ...
Health sector reform in Mali, 1989-1996 - TropMed Central Antwerp ...
Health sector reform in Mali, 1989-1996 - TropMed Central Antwerp ...
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86<br />
From simulation to a provisional operat<strong>in</strong>g budget<br />
All th<strong>in</strong>gs considered, establish<strong>in</strong>g a ComHC seemed a difficult and risky<br />
venture; it could not be done without a feasibility study that took <strong>in</strong>to<br />
account the responsibilities, prelim<strong>in</strong>ary revenue, and negotiation of subsidy<br />
programmes (e.g., by the State and the local development committee). A<br />
simple software package was developed for the feasibility studies based on<br />
observations from other cases. 78 Us<strong>in</strong>g the software, one could simulate the<br />
viability of health areas accord<strong>in</strong>g to the configuration of the health area<br />
(total population and population liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the centre, number<br />
of villages), fixed charges, expected attendance for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g near<br />
the centre and those liv<strong>in</strong>g more than 5 km from the centre, preventive<br />
coverage, and range of fees as well as the marg<strong>in</strong> on sale of drugs. 79<br />
Population liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the health centre. Fig. 15 shows<br />
hypothetical attendance for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the centre as<br />
0.45 new cases per <strong>in</strong>habitant per year, and 0.20 new cases per <strong>in</strong>habitant<br />
per year for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g more than 5 km from the health centre.<br />
Beyond 5 km from the health centre, attendance for curative care is very<br />
low and contributes only marg<strong>in</strong>ally to revenues.<br />
It turned out that hypothesiz<strong>in</strong>g 0.20 new cases per <strong>in</strong>habitant per<br />
year was too optimistic. The actual figure was closer to 0.10. On the other<br />
hand, assum<strong>in</strong>g 0.45 cases for communities liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km of the health<br />
centre underestimated the situation <strong>in</strong> a number of rural health centres.<br />
The simulation tested different hypotheses accord<strong>in</strong>g to the size of the total<br />
population of the health area and its distribution, expressed as the<br />
percentage of the population liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km from the health centre (30,<br />
50, and 70%, respectively). Revenues from operations became positive for<br />
communities of 10,000 <strong>in</strong>habitants, 50% of whom were liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5 km<br />
of the centre. In reality, and consider<strong>in</strong>g the fact that the State needed to<br />
cover depreciation, a critical mass of 3,000-4,000 <strong>in</strong>habitants liv<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> 5<br />
km was sufficient to assure the viability of the area.<br />
78 M<strong>in</strong>istère de la Santé, de la Solidarité et des Personnes Agées - UNICEF (1994) Le<br />
f<strong>in</strong>ancement des centres de santé communautaires: utilization d’un modèle de simulation<br />
basé sur des expériences en République du <strong>Mali</strong>: description du modèle. 7p. Bamako:<br />
M<strong>in</strong>istère de la Santé, de la Solidarité et des Personnes Agées - UNICEF.<br />
79 Traore Nafo F, de Bethune X & El Abassi A (1997) Le f<strong>in</strong>ancement des centres de santé<br />
périphériques; enseignment d’un modèle de simulation. In: Brunet-Jailly E (ed) Innover dans<br />
les systèmes de santé. Expériences d’Afrique de l’Ouest, 241-256. Paris: Editions Karthala.<br />
Studies <strong>in</strong> HSO&P,20,2003