Rapport - COWI

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14 SAMFUNNSØKONOMISKE VIRKNINGER AV SAMFERDSELSINVESTERINGER fected. Contrary, the productivity gains (per employee) are usually small in large cities, but the overall benefits in billion NOK may be substantial because a high number of employees are influenced. › Railroad projects will in general lead to relative small productivity gains (per employee) due to the low market share for rail compared to road and bus transportation. However, in the case of a new tunnel beneath downtown Oslo, the economic benefits are substantial because the present capacity is a major source to constraints in the railroad system in the whole eastern Norway. › Investments in main approaches to urban areas give in general higher benefits than new highways between the cities. In our analysis this is illustrated by the high benefits related to Arnatunnelen in Bergen, even if the new tunnel connects a relatively sparsely populated area with the centre of Bergen. The report also assesses whether two infrastructure projects that was completed during the last 10 years has led to agglomeration effects. The projects that have been examined are a new highway through Østfold County and new bridge connections replacing ferries in Hordaland County. The conclusion is that there is strong evidence of agglomeration effects in the areas influenced by the new infrastructure. Firstly, we find an increased specialisation between areas for housing and areas for enterprises and hence a strong development towards larger business areas. In addition, our data also strongly indicates a better matching of competence between enterprises and employees through higher mobility and larger labour market regions. Part B: Integrated transport investments The term integrated transport investments in this context refers to larger infrastructure projects as opposed to fragmented development of transport infrastructure. The practice of relatively small road and rail projects, covering only short stretches of the infrastructure at a time, has raised concern. More integrated and predictable development facilitates a more efficient use of resources as well as faster development. Fortunately, there has been a tendency towards larger contracts in recent years. Larger projects have a potential for efficiency gains with respect to investment costs. Savings are possible due to economies of scale, such as a lower share of fixed costs, learning effects, and more rational design of temporary roads during the period of construction. Further, increased predictability enables a more efficient allocation of machinery and staff. The size of the contracts also affects which type of entrepreneurs who are interested, which in turn affects costs. Larger and faster projects generate benefits to society in the form of earlier realisation of benefits from time savings and traffic safety. These benefits may partly be offset by cost increases generated from earlier realisation of e.g. environmental costs and maintenance costs. However, the latter types of costs are often smaller than the benefits from time savings and traffic safety.
SAMFUNNSØKONOMISKE VIRKNINGER AV SAMFERDSELSINVESTERINGER 15 One should be careful in trying to generalise the size of the possible savings from establishing larger transport projects instead of small. As an illustration we have conducted a simplified analysis of two examples. In the first example, a large and efficient road project is compared to a hypothetical scenario in which the project is divided into three separate projects that are completed at different points in time. In the second example, two smaller, adjacent road projects are compared to a hypothetical scenario in which they are carried out as one project. That is, the second project is completed four years earlier than in the basic scenario. In the table below, it is assumed that there is a 10 percent efficiency gain in the investment cost for integrated projects as compared to separate projects. Other differences in net present value are due to the discounting of future benefits and costs in different time periods. Example 1 Example 2 Integrated Separate Separate Integrated Net Present Value 567 367 -536 -492 Change -35 % 8 % Examples illustrating the benefits from integrated, as opposed to separate, road projects (Million NOK) Part C: Time horizon and discount rate It is sometimes questioned how the long-term effects of transport investments are handled in cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The choice of time horizon and discount rate influence the net present value of projects. Hence, the economic profitability and ranking of projects may be affected. Default values in the CBA application EFFEKT are 4.5 percent discount rate and a time horizon of 25 years. By means of EFFEKT a sensitivity analysis was carried out for four projects: E6 Patterød – Akershus border (Østfold County), E134 Lifjell (Telemark County), Fv 714 Frøya Tunnel (Sør-Trøndelag County) and Rv 35 Grua – Gardermoen (Oppland and Akershus counties). The table below summarises the effect of lower discount rate and longer time horizon. All of the projects are better off in terms of net present value when the discount rate is lower. Expanding the time horizon increases the net present value of the three profitable projects whereas the net present value is reduced for the non-profitable project (Lifjell). Project Basic calculation Discount rate 3% Change % Time horizon 50 years Change % E6 Patterød – Akershus 856 1 148 34 1 790 109 E134 Lifjell -1 155 -797 31 -1 328 -15 Fv 174 Frøya Tunnel 265 475 79 744 181 Rv 35 Grua - Gardermoen 2 778 3 639 31 5 274 90 Net present value (Million NOK). Sensitivity test in EFFEKT by changing discount rate and time horizon, respectively Behind the positive effect on the net present value there are mixed effects on the different costs and benefits. The time profile of costs and benefits affect the results.
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Rapport - COWI

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