HANSA 01-2024

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MÄRKTE | MARKETS Tonnage imbalances prop up rates The new year is off to a better start than expected for shipping, with inefficiencies and some restocking in Europe helping freight rates. By Michael Hollmann After a major correction in most shipping segments last year from record earnings levels during the corona boom, 2024 is opening on a slightly more positive tone than basic supply/demand fundamentals would suggest. While the protracted economic weakness in Europe and worsening real estate crisis in China are holding back shipping demand at a time of much-increased newbuilding deliveries in the container sector, fleet and trade inefficiencies are going some way in counterbalancing the slack in tonnage supply. The growing distress in the Panama Canal has been complemented by a sharp deterioration in maritime security in the Bab el-Mandab Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea. Rocket attacks by Houthi rebels on merchant ships of all kinds have surged to a level that calls for an immediate increase in military assistance to safeguard vessel traffic through the region. Otherwise, a large-scale re-routing of ships around the Cape of Good Hope will be difficult to avoid. According to anecdotal reports, Israeliowned or -linked tonnage is already sent around the Cape on a regular basis now with deviation costs covered by insurers to some extent. Transit times are facing increases of one or even two weeks depending on the trade route in what is bound to have an impact on space availability. In the final weeks of last year, slot utilisation on container line services between Asia and Europe was estimated to be around 90 %–95 % – thanks, of course, not just to cargo demand but also thanks to substantial blank sailings. No doubt, further schedule disruption and transit delays due to security issues in the Red Sea could easily push utilisation to the limit in the coming weeks that are likely to see considerable seasonal growth in cargo liftings ex Far East ahead of Chinese New Year. Rate trends at the end of 2023 were already pretty clear with notable gains on spot rates in the Far East/Europe that only few would have anticipated amid the incessant flow of newbuilding tonnage from Asian yards. The first carriers have raised the stakes once more by posting general rate increases to 3,000 $/FEU per January. If successful, this would mean a tripling in the market rate within just 2–3 months. The reduced mobility of tonnage between Pacific and Atlantic due to draftor security-related issues in the Panama Canal and the Red Sea/Suez Canal are impacting all other sectors as well, from bulk carriers and multipurpose vessels via reefers to tankers. One of the particularly vulnerable segments seems to be the handysize class of bulk carriers. The reduced backhaul flow of tonnage from the Pacific to the Atlantic via the Panama Canal already sent spot rates in the US Gulf and on the East Coast of South America soaring since end of November. Continent and Mediterranean ports have seen tonnage tightening as well with charterers picking more ships from there for the US East Coast. If traffic via the Red Sea to Europe gets blocked, the region could face a VIEWPOINT Regional carriers not making any money Prospects for the smaller container ship charter market look pretty bleak as the year draws to a close. Richard Wetzki, managing director at TCT Shipbrokers in Singapore, warns the industry should brace for a perfect storm next year. The container ship charter market keeps losing ground, with prompt tonnage building especially in Asia. What’s the view from Singapore? Richard Wetzki: General sentiment is quite downbeat in view of the sheer amount of tonnage coming open. We must brace ourselves for further increases in prompt positions simply due to the fact that most vessels now only get covered for short and very flexible periods. This means owners and their brokers are constantly in fixing mode. The higher frequency gives charterers the opportunity to incessantly test the market and press for lower rates. Worryingly, premiums for modern eco vessels have also shrunk considerably. A super-modern SDARI 1800 for example may only obtain $ 1,000 more than a standard Wenchong 1700 even though the former offers operational savings of up to $ 10,000 per day. Unlike Europe, most of Asia is not in recession. Do cargo volumes hold up? Wetzki: Yes, talking to feeder and intra- Asia carriers we hear that utilisation rates are still very sound, often at 90 % or more. There is no downturn in trade volumes overall as industrialisation keeps advancing across Southeast and South Asia assisted also by »China + 1« sour cing strategies in the western world. There are some question marks about the near-term future, Richard Wetzki Managing Director, TCT Shipbrokers though, since the pro perty market crisis in China is dampening consumer sentiment. In my experience, Chinese people rightly tend to save and hide money under a mattress so to say when the local economy goes flat. This poses a huge challenge for the © TCT Shipbrokers 12 HANSA – International Maritime Journal 01 | 2024
1000 750 500 15.06.23 ConTex 14.12.23 December '22 17,827 $ TMI – Toepfer's Multipurpose pose Index December '23 11,850 $
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