7th Workshop on Forest Fire Management - EARSeL, European ...

Fuel moisture content estimation: a land-surface modelling approach applied to African Savannas 65
( NDVI
FMC = 84549.236 * ------------- ) - 96.037
LST max
This model for FMC was applied over all savanna regions of southern Africa,
with validation of the model at Satara and Mopani sites for 1982 to 2003
(Fig. 1, right) giving r 2 = 0.604 (P < 0.001); the standard error being 21.19.
Over all southern Africa savanna regions the model simulated high values
during the wet season, declining as the dry season progressed (Fig. 2). This
dependence on precipitation was evident at the four KNP sites, whereby the
trajectory of modelled values was consistent with the temporal variability
in precipitation.
Figure 1 - Scatterplots of observed vs. predicted FMC values for Skukuza and Pretoriuskop sites
(left) and Satara and Mopani (right) for measurements from 1982 to 2003.
Figure 2 - Mean FMC modelled at each 0.5° gridbox over southern Africa during March (left)
and September (right) of 2001.