7th Workshop on Forest Fire Management - EARSeL, European ...

Analysis of human-caused wildfire occurrence and land use changes in France, Spain and Portugal 87
samples (Garson 2006). This test has been applied to analyze potential
connection between wildfire occurrence trends and (i) the land cover
change category that covers the largest area in the NUTS3 (ii) the land
cover change category (that covers the largest area in the NUTS3) grouped
in four main categories, meaning the increase in each cover to the detriment
of the other covers: increase of urban area (urbanization), increase of
forest areas (forest expansion), increase of agricultural areas and agricultural
abandonment.
3 - Results
In France, in those areas where forest fire causes have changed in the study
period, the main land cover changes observed have been from agricultural
to urban, from forest to shrubland and from grassland to shrubland.
However, we have found statistically significant relationships only between
the decrease of fires due to negligence and the agricultural to urban land
cover change, the null hypothesis of no relationship has been rejected in
this case with p=0.035. When agricultural to urban is the main change, the
decrease of negligence has been the 58.7% of the NUTS3. When agricultural
to urban is not the main change, the increase in negligence fires has
been the 63.8%. Figure 1 shows the NUTS3 where these relationships have
been found:
Figure 1 - Decrease in fires caused by negligence between the periods 1986-1995 and 1996-
2006 and agricultural to urban land cover change in France by NUTS3.