Rating Models and Validation - Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Rating Models and Validation - Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Rating Models and Validation - Oesterreichische Nationalbank
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6.4.3 Developing Stress Tests<br />
This section presents one possible procedure for developing <strong>and</strong> performing<br />
stress tests. The procedure presented here can be divided into six stages:<br />
Chart 77: Developing <strong>and</strong> Performing Stress Tests<br />
Step 1: Ensuring Data Quality<br />
One basic prerequisite for successful stress-testing is a high-quality data set.<br />
Only when the data used are accurate <strong>and</strong> up to date can stress tests yield suitable<br />
results from which effective countermeasures can be derived.<br />
For example, it is crucial to ensure that ratings are always up to date <strong>and</strong><br />
valid. If this is not the case, the borrowersÕ creditworthiness (<strong>and</strong> thus also<br />
the corresponding PD) may change substantially without the knowledge of<br />
the credit institution. The stress test would then be based on an outdated risk<br />
situation, <strong>and</strong> would thus be unable to generate meaningful forecasts under crisis<br />
conditions.<br />
Other important credit portfolio data include the outst<strong>and</strong>ing volume of<br />
each credit facility, the interest rate, as well as any available collateral.<br />
Using inaccurate or dated collateral values, for example, can also distort the<br />
risk situation. This is precisely the case when excessively high collateral values<br />
(which cannot be attained in the case of realization) are entered.<br />
Important market data which may simultaneously represent risk factors<br />
include interest rates, exchange rates <strong>and</strong> stock indices. This information is<br />
<strong>Rating</strong> <strong>Models</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Validation</strong><br />
Guidelines on Credit Risk Management 133