Rating Models and Validation - Oesterreichische Nationalbank

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Rating Models and Validation Although the data categories for project and object finance transactions are identical, the evaluation criteria can still differ in specific data categories. During the Project In addition to the information available at the beginning of the project, it is possible to assess additional data categories during the project due to improved data availability. The procedure to be applied here is analogous to the one used for project finance transactions (during the project), which means that the essential new credit assessment areas are as follows: — Target/actual comparison of cash flows — Target/actual comparison of construction progress — Fulfillment of requirements 2.4.3 Commodities Finance Commodities finance refers to structured short-term lending to finance reserves, inventories or receivables of exchange-traded commodities (e.g. crude oil, metals, or grains), where the exposure will be repaid from the proceeds of the sale of the commodity and the borrower has no independent capacity to repay the exposure. 7 Due to the short-term nature of the loans (as mentioned above), it is not necessary to distinguish various project stages in commodities finance. One essential characteristic of a commodities finance transaction is the fact that the proceeds from the sale of the commodity are used to repay the loan. Therefore, the primary information to be taken into account is related to the commodity itself. If possible, credit assessments should also include the current exchange price of the commodity as well as historical and expected price developments. The expected price development can be used to derive the expected sale proceeds as the collateral value. By contrast, the creditworthiness of the parties involved plays a less important role in commodities finance. External factors which should not be neglected in the rating process include the legal and political circumstances at the place of fulfillment for the commodities finance transaction. A lack of clarity in the legal situation at the place of fulfillment could cause problems with the sale — and thus payment difficulties. The country rating can also serve as an indicator in the assessment of specific countries. 2.4.4 Income-Producing Real Estate Financing The term ÒIncome-producing real estate (IPRE)Ó refers to a method of providing funding to real estate (such as, office buildings to let, retail space, multifamily residential buildings, industrial or warehouse space, and hotels) where the prospects for repayment and recovery on the exposure depend primarily on the cash flows generated by the asset. 8 The main source of these cash flows is rental and leasing income or the sale of the asset. 7 Cf. EUROPEAN COMMISSION, draft directive on regulatory capital requirements, Annex D-1, No. 13. 8 Cf. EUROPEAN COMMISSION, draft directive on regulatory capital requirements, Annex D-1, No. 14. 26 Guidelines on Credit Risk Management
Before the Project As the repayment of the loan mainly depends on the income generated by the real estate, the main data category used in credit assessment is the cash flow forecast for proceeds from rentals and/or sales. In order to assess whether this cash flow forecast is realistic, it is important to assess the rent levels of comparable properties at the respective location as well as the fair market value of the real estate. For this purpose, historical time series should be observed in particular in order to derive estimates of future developments in rent levels and real estate prices. These expected developments can be used to derive the expected sale proceeds as the collateral value in the case of default. The lender should compare a plausible cash flow forecast with the financing structure of the transaction in order to assess whether the borrower will be able to meet future payment obligations. Furthermore, it is necessary to consider the type of property financed and whether it is generally possible to rent out or sell such properties on the current market. Even if the borrowerÕs creditworthiness is not considered crucial in a commercial real estate financing transaction, it is also necessary to examine the ownership structure and the credit standing of each stakeholder involved. The future income produced by the real estate depends heavily on the creditworthiness of the future tenant or lessee, and therefore credit assessments for the real estate financing transaction should also include this information whenever possible. Another external factor which plays an important role in credit assessment is the country in which the real estate project is to be constructed. It is only possible to ensure timely completion of the project under stable general legal and political conditions. The external country rating can serve as a measure of a countryÕs stability. During the Project Aside from the information available at the beginning of the project, a number of additional data categories can be assessed during the project. These include the following: — Target/actual comparison of construction progress — Target/actual comparison of cash flows — Fulfillment of covenants/requirements — Occupancy rate With the help of target/actual comparisons, the projectÕs construction progress can be checked against its planned status. In this context, substantial deviations can serve as early signs of danger in the real estate project. Second, the assessment can also involve comparing the planned cash flows from previous forecasts with the cash flows realized to date. If considerable deviations arise, it is important to take them into account in credit assessment. Another qualitative factor to be assessed is the fulfillment of specific requirements, such as construction requirements, environmental protection requirements and the like. In cases where these requirements are not fulfilled, the project may be delayed or even endangered. Rating Models and Validation Guidelines on Credit Risk Management 27
Page 1 and 2: ≈√ Guidelines on Credit Risk Ma
Page 3 and 4: The ongoing development of contempo
Page 5 and 6: 5 Developing a Rating Model 60 5.1
Page 7 and 8: Rating Models and Validation I INTR
Page 9 and 10: This segmentation from the business
Page 11 and 12: The best-practice segmentation pres
Page 13 and 14: Chart 2: Data Requirements for Gove
Page 15 and 16: 2.2 Financial Service Providers In
Page 17 and 18: Insurance Companies Due to their di
Page 19 and 20: Capital Market-Oriented/Internation
Page 21 and 22: — Market prospects are not assess
Page 23 and 24: Chart 5: Data Requirements for Corp
Page 25: elationships in the project, these
Page 29 and 30: Chart 6: Data Requirements for Reta
Page 31 and 32: During the Credit Term Instead of o
Page 33 and 34: 3.1 Heuristic Models Heuristic mode
Page 35 and 36: Chart 9: Information Categories for
Page 37 and 38: Explanatory Component The explanato
Page 39 and 40: This example defines linguistic ter
Page 41 and 42: ments as to whether higher or lower
Page 43 and 44: Chart 16: Indicators in the ÒCrebo
Page 45 and 46: Logistic regression has a number of
Page 47 and 48: adapts the network according to any
Page 49 and 50: The parameters required to calculat
Page 51 and 52: ture of the borrowerÕs creditworth
Page 53 and 54: Chart 24: Vertical Linking of Ratin
Page 55 and 56: e necessary in this case if the def
Page 57 and 58: 4.1.5 Consistency Heuristic models
Page 59 and 60: Compared to heuristic models, stati
Page 61 and 62: the data set and statistical testin
Page 63 and 64: data collection procedure. This pro
Page 65 and 66: full surveys is often too high, esp
Page 67 and 68: essential structural characteristic
Page 69 and 70: For each block, interim objectives
Page 71 and 72: Chart 34: Creating the Analysis Dat
Page 73 and 74: Chart 35: Creating the Analysis and
Page 75 and 76: Once a quality-assured data set has
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an indicator should only be used in
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Transformation of Indicators In ord
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the scoring functions developed usi
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Chart 37: Significance of Quantitat
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— For all other statistical and h
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of approximately 10 intervals shoul
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With regard to the time interval be
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around the main diagonal, however,
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tial increase in marginal default r
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Chart 46: Aspects of Rating Model V
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— Model development procedure Mod
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and bad refer to whether a credit d
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numbers of cases per class observed
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Chart 54: Depiction of a and b erro
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Chart 57: Shape of the a—b Error
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Interpretation of the Pietra Index
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The following relation applies to t
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Chart 62: ROC Curve with Simultaneo
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Chart 65: Interpretation of the Bay
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The table below (chart 67) shows a
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The lower the Brier Score is, the b
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Chart 70 shows the reliability diag
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Chart 71: Identification of Signifi
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estimates, which means that it is e
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transition matrix, the data require
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tency of the cumulative and conditi
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to internal back-testing results in
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Changes in correlations One of the
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6.4.3 Developing Stress Tests This
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Counterparty-based and credit facil
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tify decisive factors influencing i
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III ESTIMATING AND VALIDATING LGD/E
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Chart 81: Loss Components in LGD to
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assets, as the danger exists that m
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— Collateral: Collateral value, c
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Chart 87: Overview of Customer Type
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transaction, however, it is also ne
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Implementing an in-house LGD estima
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nents; this is analogous to the use
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those assets which serve as collate
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during the realization period. The
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Chart 91: Example of Segmentation f
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ity of the realization market and t
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The level of utilization for off-ba
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8.3 EAD Estimation Methods As in th
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IV REFERENCES Backhaus, Klaus/Erich
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Stuhlinger, Matthias, Rolle von Rat
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Pytlik, Martin, Diskriminanzanalyse
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Rating Models and Validation - Oesterreichische Nationalbank

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