Preventive Action for Refugee Producing Situations

58 Chapter 2
producing conflicts take place in the context of regional disputes, the RPG
judged that such regional bodies as the Organization of African Unity
(OAU), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the
Organization of American States, and the Council of Europe could provide a
significant contribution in terms of diplomatic strategies, relief work, and
long-range political solutions. 100
The RPG further recommended that an international citizens' commission
for humanitarian affairs be set up, to function as a watchdog and an early
warning system in refugee producing situations. Composed of prominent
persons from various countries (with access to high-level policy-makers),
this group would have a small but well-trained staff to monitor information
from a range of private and public sources and to perform on-site
verification of facts.
In its ongoing work, the RPG points out the failure of governments and
international organizations to take fuller advantage of international networks
of specialists, including historians and anthropologists, who are either
located in the countries where refugee flows could originate or who
otherwise have a rich knowledge of the area. For example, a nonprofit,
private organization such as Cultural Survival would be in a good position
to provide well-researched background information on a developing refugee
crisis. 101
There are an increasing number of projects geared toward mobilizing
international preventive action to address refugee-producing situations,
particularly those in which famine plays a central role. 102 The RPG has
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100 Lance Clark, "Early Warning" - Improving the International Response to
Refugee Crises," pp. 28-33.
101 Lance Clark, "Early Warning - Improving International Responses to
Refugee Crises," A Working Paper, (Washington, D.C.,: Refugee Policy
Group, n.d.), pp. 34-43.
102 Various organizations have set up specific early warning systems. The Food
and Agriculture (FAO) did set up a system in 1975 for food; the Agency for
International Development's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) is
funding a disaster early warning technical assistance program through the
NOAA/NESDIS Assessement and Information Services Center, whose
innovative feature lies in enhanced satellite data combined with data packages,
which NOAA uses to forecast harvest size. Two more significant systems have
been in operation: the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), operated by the
Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, was
established in August 1985 to focus on health and nutritional data; and among
the nongovernmental Famine Early Warning Systems, OXFAM has for some
years already informally operated an early warning system for famine in
Oxford, which collects and analyzes existing world figures (from FAO,
NOAA and FEWS systems) for rainfall in problem
Empirical Examination 59
focused most of its efforts on early warning with a view to improving
emergency responses; where possible it has examined possible responses
that might help alleviate refugee-producing situations. The RPG's work in
early warning is particularly critical in famine-related refugee flows,
because quick action is imperative once a crisis erupts. Whereas people can
tolerate delays in achieving political goals (such as statehood), they cannot
wait indefinitely for food. In light of its achievements and its increased
recognition among nongovernmental organizations, international
organizations, and even governments, the RPG has a significant potential to
contribute to preventive action.
The RPG has been undertaking studies in consultation with UN officials
to examine ways in which the United Nations (specifically UNHCR), with
its nonpolitical mandate to protect and assist refugees, could make use of the
rich information it receives in discharging its ongoing functions. UNHCR
has been developing training modules for its staff that include early warning
issues, with advice and assistance from the RPG. 10 3 Under contract with
UNHCR, the RPG has been compiling existing data on the subject of early
warning about mass refugee flows and has transformed this material into
practical guidelines for UNHCR staff to use in training and analysis. 104
As part of the groundwork for this project, the RPG produced a series of
analytical papers on problem spots that UNHCR staff members had
identified in their work. For example, almost every official in UNHCR's
service faces the risk of feeling overwhelmed by the challenges of his or her
assignment. The natural response to such pressure is to develop a "tunnel
vision," which can impede the consideration of one's work within the
broader global context. Among the other UNHCR problems that the RPG
helped address were:
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areas. Though OXFAM has not been attempting to provide a globalized early
warning data system as have the others, it has the advantage of providing a
link between problem identification and response. See Margaret Dyer
Chamberlain, "Lessons to be learned from Famine Early Warning Systems,"
Draft Working Paper, (Washington, D.C.: Refugee Policy Group, September
1986), pp. 1-4.
103 See Program of the UNHCR Emergency Managers Training Workshop,
University of Wisconsin - Madison, November-December 1988,
UNHCR/EMTP Madison 88,25 October 1988, p. 1.
104 United Nations Contract No. 87/030: Institutional or Corporate Contractor
with the Refugee Policy Group, Washington, for the period 1 November 1987-
31 December 1988.