Preventive Action for Refugee Producing Situations

64 Chapter 2
data could be an "essential tool for breaking down to barriers the peace
making." 117
One of the models that ORCI developed illustrates the framework of
major aspects of its work for UN political data gathering, processing and
utilization. 118
In its efforts to pinpoint potential conflicts, ORCI has been studying
computer models for crisis management in the context of UN conflict resolution
and prevention. It is currently refining its theoretical guidelines,
including indicators for establishing its early warning work and drawing up
comprehensive country profiles. 119 In order to identify trouble spots, ORCI
analysts could, among other choices, draw on GASCON HI (Com-puteralded
Systems for Information on Local Conflicts), a computerized database
developed by Professor Lincoln Bloomfield at M.I.T.'s Center for
International Studies. Professor Bloomfield's system is a computerized spinoff
from a major research project carried out by the MIT Center for
International Studies since the mid-1960s. 120
Although it has been a slow process, ORCI is now established and
equipped as planned. Assistant Secretary-General James O.C. Jonah oversees
the Office's three major functions:
1. The Planning and Early Warning Service, which includes a Planning and
Research Coordination & Development Unit and two Data Units (one on Africa
and Asia and the other on the Americas and Europe)
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117 Tapio Kanninen, "New Prospects at the United Nations to Utilize Research and
Technology Related to Data on International Relations," Background Paper for
participants at the Conference on New Technologies for the Codification, Storage,
Retrieval and Analysis of International Events Data, held at the M.I.T., 13-15 November
1987, p. 6.
118 Kanninen, "New Prospects," p. 4. Kanninen presented in that paper a theoretical
model for UN political data gathering, processing and utilization, to illustrate
the framework of major aspects of its work.
119 Tapio Kanninen, "Monitoring and Early Warning for Preventive Diplomacy of the
Secretary-General," Paper, 7 April 1986, p. 3 and appendix.
120 Professor Bloomfield mentioned in his description of the CASCON system that MIT
Prof. Nazli Choucri used 45 CASCON cases in her pathbreaking work on Population
Dynamics and International Violence to examine the relationship between conflict
behavior and factors of population, resources, and technology in developing countries.
At the end of this study, she concluded that CASCON "can ... be employed as an early
warning system for detecting the development of conflict situations based on pattern
recognition ... in order to assess potential consequences." Lincoln P. Bloomfield,
"Computers and Foreign Policy: The CASCON System," unpublished paper, n.d., p, 6.
2. The News Distribution Section
3. The Drafting Service.121
Empirical Examination 65
The Planning and Research Coordination & Development Unit among
several other tasks, establishes and maintains contacts with outside
research institutions and individuals, to develop systems best suited for the
key responsibilities of the Office; the Data Units gather information on
potential crisis situations that might require the attention of the Secretary-
General. The News Distribution Section issues a political information
bulletin three times a day, focusing on current trouble spots and sensitive
political issues. The Drafting Service prepares public statements and
reports for the Secretary-General on all topics, including those rela ted to
refugee problems.
Provided governments and other relevant governmental organizations
support the work of ORCI as an international focal point for the collection
and analysis of information, the Office may function as a catalyst to bring
about progress. Naturally, given the tasks ahead, one organization or office
cannot carry out comprehensive preventive action alone. However, there is
currently no central international structure other than ORCI for centralizing
and analyzing information. Though organizational capabilities have been
developed by different subsidiary UN organs, specialized agencies, and
other organizations, they cannot always be used to maximum effect
because they lack an integrated coordinating mechanism.
It will be the challenge of ORCI to obtain first-hand information from
organizations working directly for the protection of human rights and refugees,
to ensure that its assessments reflect the real situations of refugee
causes around the globe. ORCI will no doubt encounter the reluctance that
nongovernmental organizations have developed for sharing their own
information with other bodies of the United Nations.
Given UNHCR's experience and expertise in humanitarian work for
refugees, its cooperation seems to be of crucial importance for providing
general information and guidance to ORCI. UNHCR has made significant
progress in the past few years in predicting new refugee flows in order to
prepare contingency plans for emergency situations.
Although cooperating with ORCI for preventive action would not conflict
with statutory limitations that govern the actions of UNHCR as a
humanitarian organization, it would obviously not be advisable for
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121 UN doc. ST/ SGB/Organization Section, ORCI, 3 October 1988: Organization
Manual, "A description of the functions and organization of the Office for
research and the Collection of Information," p. 6.