Preventive Action for Refugee Producing Situations

92 Chapter 3
This reason was given by the overwhelming majority of the respondents,
to the point where it became somewhat meaningless. It is important
to note, however, that the short time usually allotted for resettlement
registration probably contributed to what seemed a standardization
of this statement.
8. Deliberate change of social and economic policies
The political upheavals in Vietnam endangered the livelihood of people in
all professions and occupations disrupted the social fabric as well.
Children have been set to spy on their parents, not only reporting to the
authorities on their political activities but also on their incomes, for taxation
purposes. Distrust in private, professional, and public circles is widespread.
Not only academics and professionals but also farmers and
fishermen have suffered the deprivation of their usual social support
structure along with economic opportunities.198 In the early 1980s, the
Vietnamese authorities appeared, however, to have begun to realize the
devastating result of these social and economic policies. 199 With the new
law on foreign investment, which had been awaited for years and is said
to be the most liberal in the Communist world, the authorities now hope to
create conditions for an economic opening to the West. 200 In addition, in
return for its cooperation for the release of former U.S. detainees,
Vietnam hopes to break out of its isolation and obtain "humanitarian" assistance
from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, or other
Western organizations. Since the 1979 Meeting in Geneva, Vietnam has
been hoping to reestablish relations with the USA. This is an issue,
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198 "But over time the authorities in the Indochinese states must come to
realize the political and diplomatic costs they run in ignoring their social
and economic responsibilities to their own people." Jonathan Moore (U.S.
Coordinator for Refugee Affairs), Speech at the IRAC Conference on First
Asylum in Southeast Asia, 6 June 1988, p. 4.
199 "Vietnam Economy is Ravaged by Monetary Crisis," The New York Times,
10 April 1988.
200 "Capital investment was to be encouraged by a liberal foreign investment
code enacted in December [1987] to permit 100 percent foreign owner ship,
use of foreign staff in key posts, repatriation of capital and profits, and
guarantees against confiscation. The switch reflected greater appreciation
for the failure of ideological economic policies over the previous decade.
Inflation had risen to 700%. See Alan J. Day and Verena Hoffman, eds. The
Annual Register: A Record of World Events 1987, Vol. 229, (Longman,
1987), p. 323.
Analytical Discussion 93
however, on which the current U.S. administration has been absolutely
obdurate: 201
The United States, with some success, tries to maintain an aid and trade boycott of
Vietnam by Western nations ... [and] Reagan Administration officials insist that Hanoi
can and must do better to create 'a proper climate' for better relations. 202
b) Pull factors
We will use the term pull factors to mean circumstances which potentially offer
an improvement over conditions people face at home. The Refugee Policy
Group in Washington has developed a general framework to analyze causes of
flight: alternatives to international flight; obstacles to international flight;
expected reception in the asylum country; patterns of decision-making; and
seasonal factors. 203 Inspired by this analytical framework we have developed
categories as pull factors, some of which might come in as intervening factors
discussed the section on the RPG. Resettlement opportunities, inability to return
after having left clandestinely (now changing probably), the absence of
individual screening for refugee status, the impossibility of voluntary
repatriation, the likelihood of being rescued at sea, United Nations aid in camps
pending resettlement, and efforts by overseas Vietnamese to keep their plight in
the center of international interest.
1. Resettlement in the West
For those Vietnamese escaping between mid-1975 and mid- 1977 in
small boats 204 and over land through Cambodia, 205 the option of re-
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201 During his recent visit to Asia, the Secretary of State George Shultz again made
clear, the Reagan Administration's "long-standing policy of barring diplomatic
relations with Vietnam until it withdraws from Cambodia, despite moves in Congress
to open interests sections in each country's capital." See "Shultz Begins 18-
day Visit to 7 Asian Lands and Hong Kong", The New York Times, 7 July 1988.
202 "Vietnam, in Flurry of Moves, Pushes for Better Ties to U.S.," The New York
Times, 17 October 1988.
203 Clark, "Early Warning of Refugee Flows," Washington, June, 1988, pp. 10-11.
204 The following groups arrived in this period:
1975: 377,000
1976: 5,644
1977: 15,633