Making Targeted Sanctions Effective - Small Arms Survey

PART IV: TARGETING THE TARGET | 95
• What means are at the disposal of the target actor to carry out its objectionable
policies?
• In which ways is the target likely to try to evade the sanctions?
• Is the target likely to take retaliatory measures against those implementing
the sanctions, and what might these be?
• What resources are available to the Security Council to assist in determining
what types of targeted sanctions will be most effective?
• What resources are available to the Security Council, the Secretariat,
and Member States for implementing targeted sanctions?
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— GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Time may not permit detailed pre-assessments in all cases, but every
effort should be made to “front-load” the assessment and planning
process. This allows for full consideration of the likely impact
of sanctions on the target and on other actors. In most cases of targeted
sanctions considerable time has passed before particular sanctions
have been agreed and decided on. It should be kept in mind,
however, that pre-assessments that are made public might provide
an early warning to prospective targeted actors. Still, such analysis
should be encouraged in the Secretariat as well as in the Member
States themselves, and made available to Member States. When
time constraints do not permit, an assessment early in the sanction
regime is still necessary.
Such analysis should also aim to identify ways the target is likely to
evade sanctions and preclude them to the extent possible. It is crucial
to consider the capacity of targeted states to counter sanctions,
for instance, by increasing indigenous production of sanctioned
goods or services (e.g. small arms, light weapons, ammunition,
equipment for internal repression).
It is equally important to identify “Achilles heels” by developing a
detailed profile of the target in order to ensure that targeted sanctions
imposed by the Security Council are those with the greatest
possibility of speedily achieving the objectives of the Council.