Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Real value added for the Finance & Insurance Services industry declined by 4.5 per cent in the period January–June 2010, influenced mainly by: a) lower stock of Loans & Advances compared with the similar period of 2009; and b) the negative impact on net interest income of the JDX which was introduced in February 2010. The growth of 2.9 per cent in Hotels & Restaurants/Tourism industry was influenced mainly by the increase in stopover arrivals during the first three months of the year, as the May 2010 Western Kingston civil unrest had an adverse impact on the tourist industry. The increased expenditure for damage control to the island should augur well for the industry in terms of setting it on a renewed growth path amidst the negative publicity. 4. The External sector BOP January – May 2010 For the January - May 2010 period, there was a current account deficit of US$193.7 million, an improvement of US$102.3 million compared with the corresponding period of 2009. The contraction in the deficit during the first five months of 2010 stemmed from improvements in all sub-accounts with the exception of the goods sub-account. During the January-May 2010 period, the deficit on the Goods sub-account was US$1.24 billion, a deterioration of US$60.3 million compared with January – May 2009. This increase in the deficit was attributable to a US$21.3 million decrease in exports and a US$39.0 million growth in imports. Lower export earnings were influenced mainly by a decline in the value of alumina and sugar exports. The rise in the value of imports was associated with a 32.9 per cent expansion in the mineral fuel imports. The surplus on the Services sub-account increased to US$441.1 million during January – May 2010 from US$407.0 million in the corresponding 2009 period. This improvement stemmed mainly from increased inflows in the travel category, due to a growth in touirist arrivals. The Income sub-account registered a deficit of US$185.9 million compared with a deficit of US$255.6 million in the corresponding period of 2009. This US$69.7 million improvement was due 70
mainly to a reduction in outflow of investment income, influenced primarily by a decline in profits remitted by foreign direct investment companies and lower interest payment by the government. A surplus of US$787.1 million was recorded for the Current Transfers sub-account, an increase of US$58.9 million. This improvement largely reflected a growth of 10.1 per cent in remittance inflows. E. PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR QUARTER OF THE EVENT (JULY-SEPTEMBER 2010) For the July- September 2010 quarter, a flat real GDP performance is expected, reflecting higher value added of 1.8 per cent in the Goods Producing industry and a decline of 0.8 per cent in the Services industry. Growth in the Goods Producing industry was due to real GDP growth in: a) Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing of 2.0 per cent, brought about by strong growth in domestic crop production; and b) Mining & Quarrying of 31.1 per cent, reflecting the higher crude production at Noranda Aluminium Holding Corporation and the reopening of the WINDALCo Ewarton Plant. Prior to Tropical Storm Nicole it was projected that the Manufacture industry would decline by 1.0 per cent. Preliminary data for the July-September quarter indicate that performance in the industry was not significantly affected by the storm. The minimal impact of the storm was reflected in Non- Metallic Minerals and Chemical & Other Chemical Products. In the Non-Metallic Minerals subindustry, there was higher level of cement production for the months of July and August while there was a 45.1 per cent decline in production in September 2010 relative to September 2009. A decline of 1.0 per cent was projected for the Construction industry, as the industry is being impacted by the limited fiscal space which restrains expenditure on public sector construction projects. This was further exacerbated by the reduction and uncertainty that surrounds private sector investment, evidence by the down scaling of hotel and residential construction. The projected decline in the Services industry was based on reductions in value added of 2.0 per cent for the Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery (WRTRIM), 4.0 per cent Finance & Insurance services and 4.3 per cent in the Electricity & Water supplies industry. The lower value added in the Electricity & Water Supplies industry is a result of the effects of the immediate disruptions to these services due to the tropical storm. The Hotels & Restaurants and 71
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JAMAICA MACRO SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND EN
Page 3 and 4:
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION .
Page 5 and 6:
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Radar Com
Page 7 and 8:
Executive Summary Description of th
Page 9 and 10:
Infrastructure As in the case with
Page 11 and 12:
Education Total damage to education
Page 13 and 14:
I. INTRODUCTION The Meteorological
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On September 30, most parishes cont
Page 17 and 18:
Table 1: Wind Analysis Parish Stati
Page 19 and 20:
• Clarendon - Grimmith recorded 3
Page 21 and 22:
The National Aeronautics and Space
Page 23 and 24:
In the aftermath of the event, the
Page 25 and 26:
Major landslide on the Maggotty mai
Page 27 and 28:
The entrance to the Apple Valley Pa
Page 29 and 30:
Figure 8: Areas Critically Affected
Page 31 and 32: Figure 9: Communities Affected by T
Page 33 and 34: elated to the weather event were tr
Page 35 and 36: At the time of the event, the predo
Page 37 and 38: Figure 10: Damage to Educational In
Page 39 and 40: C. Public Buildings a) Correctional
Page 41 and 42: Figure 12: Summary of Damage to the
Page 43 and 44: 3. Vector Control - Comprehensive p
Page 45 and 46: Figure 13: Total Damage to Agricult
Page 47 and 48: Table 15: Preliminary Costs of Dama
Page 49 and 50: Table 17: Preliminary Estimates of
Page 51 and 52: B. Tourism Sector General Overview
Page 53 and 54: Damage Preliminary cost of damage i
Page 55 and 56: IV. INFRASTRUCTURE The country’s
Page 57 and 58: islandwide. The number of customers
Page 59 and 60: The NWC was able to restore most of
Page 61 and 62: Table 23: Preliminary Cost To Re-Op
Page 63 and 64: As a result trips were shortened an
Page 65 and 66: events (Hurricane Ivan, 2004; Hurri
Page 67 and 68: Figure 18). Seagrass beds along wit
Page 69 and 70: Figure 19: Eroded section of Long B
Page 71 and 72: Waste Significant volumes of waste
Page 73 and 74: VI. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF TROPICA
Page 75 and 76: unemployment levels; and 2) reduced
Page 77 and 78: January April July October January
Page 79 and 80: domestic market, business and consu
Page 81: State of Emergency in sections of K
Page 85 and 86: • a $4.0 million grant to assist
Page 87 and 88: VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Page 89 and 90: Proposed Projects Apart from projec
Page 91 and 92: APPENDIX 79
Page 93 and 94: RADAR SUMMARY DATE : September 26,
Page 107 and 108: APPENDIX 3 Depression in New Market
Page 109: Blocked drain 97
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Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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