Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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is however expected to be tempered by the appreciation of the Jamaican dollar, continued constraints in domestic demand, and provisions allowing imports of vegetables in short supply. 2. Fiscal Operations of Central Government Greater challenges to achieving the target of 6.5 per cent of GDP was due to demands for increased capital expenditure because of infrastructure damage estimated at $18.90 billion. This will necessitate approval of increased fiscal space by the IMF. This against the background of projected lower GDP and continued increase in unemployment. These will impact negatively on revenue collections and in turn government’s ability to provide counterpart funding for some of the necessary infrastructural projects for the remainder of FY 2010/11. 3. Impact on Balance of Payment The Goods sub-account will be negatively impacted by the effect of TS Nicole on the Agriculture and Mining & Quarrying industries. Domestic agricultural crops which were destroyed are expected to be partially replaced by imports in an effort to prevent a shortage in the market. 4. Upside potential and downside risks to estimates. With the exception of the Construction & Installation industry, which saw a tempering of the decline forecasted prior to the tropical storm, growth figures for the other industries will either remain unchanged or be impacted negatively in 2010. Consequently, a GDP contraction of 0.6 per cent is anticipated, a detraction of 0.1 percentage point from the forecast pre TS Nicole. There, however, exists both upside and downside risks that may impact these estimates. Included in the upside potentials are: • Faster than anticipated recovery in the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry; and • Greater than anticipated growth in Construction & Installation. Among the downside risks are: • Additional devastation due to subsequent weather systems; and • Delayed recovery in the economies on Jamaica’s main trading partners. 74
VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Since 2001, Jamaica has been impacted by nine disaster events. These disasters have continued to highlight Jamaica’s physical vulnerability as well as the man-made factors which have exacerbated the problem. Thus, in the wake of the ever increasing climate change risks, there is a need to take steps to build resilience to natural disasters. Encroachment of new developments (formal and informal) on flood plains continues to expose large segments of the population to flooding. A considerable amount of the flooding is related to poor drainage. One example of this is the community of Big Pond, St. Catherine which has been subject to repeated flooding. The community is situated in a depression where storm water from all the areas above the district flows to and collects in a pond, resulting in the roads being impassable for several days. In many urban areas, flooding occurs because of residential encroachment along the banks of gullies. The impact of the Tropical Storm Nicole rains showed that in Sandy Park, St. Andrew, for example, some houses were constructed on the banks of the Sandy Gully without observing any setback limits. In other instances such as at Grants Pen, St. Andrew, houses were built with a setback of less than one metre. Even with the existence of drains in some communities, these were inadequate to transport great volumes of water. Inappropriate land use, another factor affecting the vulnerability of Jamaicans to tropical weather events, led to numerous instances of slope failure. In one case, in Upper St. Andrew, landslide led to failure of a retaining wall and the death of workers who were sleeping in a shed on the property. In some areas, there has been an increase in the number of developments being approved on the hillside with the result that run-off has been reduced due to the reduction of permeable areas and vegetation. In addition, the clearing of hillsides has led to increase in soil erosion and sedimentladen runoff. Other factors affecting flooding include, the inability of existing drains to transport the volume of water; the construction of houses with inadequate floor level heights; and inappropriate land uses leading to blockage of sink holes. The assessment of the disaster caused by Tropical Storm Nicole has reinforced the need for some of the underlying factors affecting the vulnerability of the country to various hazards to be urgently 75
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JAMAICA MACRO SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND EN
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TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION .
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Radar Com
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Executive Summary Description of th
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Infrastructure As in the case with
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Education Total damage to education
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I. INTRODUCTION The Meteorological
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On September 30, most parishes cont
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Table 1: Wind Analysis Parish Stati
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• Clarendon - Grimmith recorded 3
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The National Aeronautics and Space
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In the aftermath of the event, the
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Major landslide on the Maggotty mai
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The entrance to the Apple Valley Pa
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Figure 8: Areas Critically Affected
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Figure 9: Communities Affected by T
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elated to the weather event were tr
Page 35 and 36: At the time of the event, the predo
Page 37 and 38: Figure 10: Damage to Educational In
Page 39 and 40: C. Public Buildings a) Correctional
Page 41 and 42: Figure 12: Summary of Damage to the
Page 43 and 44: 3. Vector Control - Comprehensive p
Page 45 and 46: Figure 13: Total Damage to Agricult
Page 47 and 48: Table 15: Preliminary Costs of Dama
Page 49 and 50: Table 17: Preliminary Estimates of
Page 51 and 52: B. Tourism Sector General Overview
Page 53 and 54: Damage Preliminary cost of damage i
Page 55 and 56: IV. INFRASTRUCTURE The country’s
Page 57 and 58: islandwide. The number of customers
Page 59 and 60: The NWC was able to restore most of
Page 61 and 62: Table 23: Preliminary Cost To Re-Op
Page 63 and 64: As a result trips were shortened an
Page 65 and 66: events (Hurricane Ivan, 2004; Hurri
Page 67 and 68: Figure 18). Seagrass beds along wit
Page 69 and 70: Figure 19: Eroded section of Long B
Page 71 and 72: Waste Significant volumes of waste
Page 73 and 74: VI. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF TROPICA
Page 75 and 76: unemployment levels; and 2) reduced
Page 77 and 78: January April July October January
Page 79 and 80: domestic market, business and consu
Page 81 and 82: State of Emergency in sections of K
Page 83 and 84: mainly to a reduction in outflow of
Page 85: • a $4.0 million grant to assist
Page 89 and 90: Proposed Projects Apart from projec
Page 91 and 92: APPENDIX 79
Page 93 and 94: RADAR SUMMARY DATE : September 26,
Page 107 and 108: APPENDIX 3 Depression in New Market
Page 109: Blocked drain 97
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Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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