Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica
Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica
Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica
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Transport, Storage & Communication industries grew by 2.0 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively,<br />
while all the other services industries are projected to grow by 0.7 per cent. Activities in the Hotels<br />
& Restaurants industry is being buoyed by modest recovery in tourism activities as economic<br />
conditions in the major source markets improve.<br />
F. PROJECTED PERFORMANCE AFTER THE EVENT, OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2010<br />
1. Impact on GDP<br />
Given the economy’s performance in the January-June 2010 and July-September 2010 periods, GDP<br />
growth <strong>of</strong> 0.7 per cent was projected for the October–December 2010 quarter, driven mainly by<br />
Mining & Quarrying; Hotels, Restaurants & Clubs; and Transport, Storage & Communication. This<br />
projection was made against the background <strong>of</strong> several risks factors, including:<br />
• sluggishness in economic recovery<br />
• weather-related conditions which accompany the annual hurricane season<br />
Despite this, a downward revision in the GDP growth rate was necessitated, given the reported<br />
damage sustained mainly by agriculture and infrastructure (electricity, water, roads). An expansion<br />
<strong>of</strong> 0.7 per cent in GDP is expected, a detraction <strong>of</strong> 0.2 percentage point from 0.9 per cent forecasted<br />
prior to TS <strong>Nicole</strong>. The expansion in the growth rate in the October-December 2010 quarter,<br />
reflected increased value added <strong>of</strong> 1.5 per cent and 0.2 per cent in the Goods Producing and<br />
Services Industries, respectively (Table 25).<br />
While growth projections for sub industries within the Services industry remained unchanged,<br />
growth prospects for Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Mining & Quarrying sub-industries within<br />
the Goods Producing Industry were revised downwards. In the area <strong>of</strong> Agriculture, decline in the<br />
magnitude <strong>of</strong> 5.0 per cent is projected, overturning the earlier projection <strong>of</strong> 2.0 per cent growth.<br />
The anticipated outturn is consistent with the destruction to domestic crops. These domestic crops<br />
are mainly short term, which, if were replanted immediately could come into bearing in the October-<br />
December 2010 quarter. However, because <strong>of</strong> the persistent rains and the threat <strong>of</strong> other hurricanerelated<br />
systems the farmers’ effort <strong>of</strong> replanting these crops were hampered. The Ministry <strong>of</strong><br />
Agriculture has put in place several measures to reduce the impact <strong>of</strong> the storm and minimize the<br />
expected shortages in crop production. These include:<br />
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