Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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Transport, Storage & Communication industries grew by 2.0 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively, while all the other services industries are projected to grow by 0.7 per cent. Activities in the Hotels & Restaurants industry is being buoyed by modest recovery in tourism activities as economic conditions in the major source markets improve. F. PROJECTED PERFORMANCE AFTER THE EVENT, OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2010 1. Impact on GDP Given the economy’s performance in the January-June 2010 and July-September 2010 periods, GDP growth of 0.7 per cent was projected for the October–December 2010 quarter, driven mainly by Mining & Quarrying; Hotels, Restaurants & Clubs; and Transport, Storage & Communication. This projection was made against the background of several risks factors, including: • sluggishness in economic recovery • weather-related conditions which accompany the annual hurricane season Despite this, a downward revision in the GDP growth rate was necessitated, given the reported damage sustained mainly by agriculture and infrastructure (electricity, water, roads). An expansion of 0.7 per cent in GDP is expected, a detraction of 0.2 percentage point from 0.9 per cent forecasted prior to TS Nicole. The expansion in the growth rate in the October-December 2010 quarter, reflected increased value added of 1.5 per cent and 0.2 per cent in the Goods Producing and Services Industries, respectively (Table 25). While growth projections for sub industries within the Services industry remained unchanged, growth prospects for Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Mining & Quarrying sub-industries within the Goods Producing Industry were revised downwards. In the area of Agriculture, decline in the magnitude of 5.0 per cent is projected, overturning the earlier projection of 2.0 per cent growth. The anticipated outturn is consistent with the destruction to domestic crops. These domestic crops are mainly short term, which, if were replanted immediately could come into bearing in the October- December 2010 quarter. However, because of the persistent rains and the threat of other hurricanerelated systems the farmers’ effort of replanting these crops were hampered. The Ministry of Agriculture has put in place several measures to reduce the impact of the storm and minimize the expected shortages in crop production. These include: 72
• a $4.0 million grant to assist the speedy recovery of green house production; • assistance in agricultural inputs such as land preparation, seeds, fertilizers and chemicals; • the coordination with the NWA to identify and prioritize the most critical farm roads for clearing, in the first instance, to allow for free movement into and out of crop production areas that have been affected. The anticipated higher growth forecast for the Construction & Installation industry is predicated on the advancement of work on the affected roads and bridges consistent with reconstruction activities associated with TS Nicole. In addition, the fast tracking of the Jamaica Infrastructure Development Project will impact the industry positively in the short-term. However, expansion in this area in particular, may be tempered by the limited fiscal space, given the conditions that exist under the IMF Programme. It is anticipated that the two components of the Manufacture industry may be positively impacted by the passage of Tropical Storm Nicole. There is a strong correlation between the activities in the Construction industry and the production of some commodities in the Non-Metallic Minerals and Chemical & Other Chemical Products sub-industries of the Manufacture industry. Against this background, it is expected that reconstruction activities associated with Tropical Storm will generate demand for products such as cement and paint, hence positively impacting the Non-Metallic Minerals and Chemical & Other Chemical Products sub-industries, respectively. Chemical & Other Chemical Products is also expected to be positively affected by increased demand for Aluminium Sulphate and Sulphuric Acid 23 . The increased demand for Aluminium Sulphate is predicated on increased water treatment activities associated with high levels of turbidity caused by the tropical storm. Domestic inflation is expected to trend upwards, given the impact of the storm on the agriculture industry. Damage to the industry will lead to shortages in the supply of domestically grown vegetables and starchy foods such as cabbage, tomato, and sweet pepper. This situation is expected to be exacerbated by recent increases in international grain prices. This upward movement in prices 23 Sulphuric Acid is the main ingredient in the production of Aluminium Sulphate. 73
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JAMAICA MACRO SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND EN
Page 3 and 4:
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION .
Page 5 and 6:
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Radar Com
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Executive Summary Description of th
Page 9 and 10:
Infrastructure As in the case with
Page 11 and 12:
Education Total damage to education
Page 13 and 14:
I. INTRODUCTION The Meteorological
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On September 30, most parishes cont
Page 17 and 18:
Table 1: Wind Analysis Parish Stati
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• Clarendon - Grimmith recorded 3
Page 21 and 22:
The National Aeronautics and Space
Page 23 and 24:
In the aftermath of the event, the
Page 25 and 26:
Major landslide on the Maggotty mai
Page 27 and 28:
The entrance to the Apple Valley Pa
Page 29 and 30:
Figure 8: Areas Critically Affected
Page 31 and 32:
Figure 9: Communities Affected by T
Page 33 and 34: elated to the weather event were tr
Page 35 and 36: At the time of the event, the predo
Page 37 and 38: Figure 10: Damage to Educational In
Page 39 and 40: C. Public Buildings a) Correctional
Page 41 and 42: Figure 12: Summary of Damage to the
Page 43 and 44: 3. Vector Control - Comprehensive p
Page 45 and 46: Figure 13: Total Damage to Agricult
Page 47 and 48: Table 15: Preliminary Costs of Dama
Page 49 and 50: Table 17: Preliminary Estimates of
Page 51 and 52: B. Tourism Sector General Overview
Page 53 and 54: Damage Preliminary cost of damage i
Page 55 and 56: IV. INFRASTRUCTURE The country’s
Page 57 and 58: islandwide. The number of customers
Page 59 and 60: The NWC was able to restore most of
Page 61 and 62: Table 23: Preliminary Cost To Re-Op
Page 63 and 64: As a result trips were shortened an
Page 65 and 66: events (Hurricane Ivan, 2004; Hurri
Page 67 and 68: Figure 18). Seagrass beds along wit
Page 69 and 70: Figure 19: Eroded section of Long B
Page 71 and 72: Waste Significant volumes of waste
Page 73 and 74: VI. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF TROPICA
Page 75 and 76: unemployment levels; and 2) reduced
Page 77 and 78: January April July October January
Page 79 and 80: domestic market, business and consu
Page 81 and 82: State of Emergency in sections of K
Page 83: mainly to a reduction in outflow of
Page 87 and 88: VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Page 89 and 90: Proposed Projects Apart from projec
Page 91 and 92: APPENDIX 79
Page 93 and 94: RADAR SUMMARY DATE : September 26,
Page 107 and 108: APPENDIX 3 Depression in New Market
Page 109: Blocked drain 97
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Tropical Storm Nicole - Planning Institute of Jamaica

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