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From Leaving CertiFiCate to Leaving SChooL a Longitudinal Study ...

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112<br />

<strong>From</strong> <strong>Leaving</strong> Certificate <strong>to</strong> <strong>Leaving</strong> School<br />

taken Drumcondra reading and maths tests on entry <strong>to</strong> first year. Figure<br />

4.10 shows the variation in <strong>Leaving</strong> Certificate grades by ‘ability’ on<br />

entry, with a clear gradient in performance according <strong>to</strong> test scores in<br />

reading and maths. There is a correlation of +0.64 between first year<br />

reading score and <strong>Leaving</strong> Certificate performance. The correlation between<br />

first year maths score and <strong>Leaving</strong> Certificate performance is<br />

somewhat lower at +0.59, but is still substantial.<br />

Figure 4.10: <strong>Leaving</strong> Certificate grade point average by reading and<br />

maths test scores on entry <strong>to</strong> second-level education<br />

25<br />

20<br />

G<br />

P<br />

A<br />

V<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

Reading<br />

Maths<br />

0<br />

Lowest 2 Middle 4 Highest<br />

Quintile<br />

<strong>Leaving</strong> Certificate performance is closely related <strong>to</strong> Junior Certificate<br />

performance, mainly because the two exams assess the same kinds of<br />

abilities and capacities but also because access <strong>to</strong> higher level subjects is<br />

influenced by subject take-up and performance within junior cycle (see<br />

Smyth and Calvert, 2011; and Chapter Two of this study). <strong>Leaving</strong> Certificate<br />

performance is found <strong>to</strong> be very highly correlated with Junior<br />

Certificate performance (+0.86). Figure 4.11 shows the gradient in <strong>Leaving</strong><br />

Certificate performance according <strong>to</strong> levels (quintiles) of Junior Certificate<br />

grades. There is a very substantial performance gap between<br />

those in the lowest fifth and those in the highest fifth, amounting <strong>to</strong> 12.5<br />

(out of a maximum of 28) grade points per subject.

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