From Leaving CertiFiCate to Leaving SChooL a Longitudinal Study ...

Looking Back, Moving Forward 197
tion intentions. Model 1 shows that the twelve case-study schools vary
significantly in the intentions of their students. In model 2, clear gender
and social class differences are evident, in keeping with the descriptive
analysis presented above. Female students are over twice as likely to intend
to go on to higher education as males from similar social backgrounds.
In keeping with actual transition patterns, higher education intentions
are structured by social class background, with the highest rates
found among the professional and farming groups and the lowest rates
among those from semi/unskilled or non-employed backgrounds. Model
3 adds in further variables reflecting young people’s pathways through,
and experience of, post-primary education. As might be expected, Junior
Certificate grades are highly predictive of later plans, with the top quintile
nine times more likely to intend to go to higher education than the
lowest quintile.
Given the post-school pathways open to them (see Banks et al.,
2010), it is not surprising that students taking the LCA programme are
extremely unlikely to plan to go to college. The differential plans of TY
and non-TY participants shown in the descriptive analyses above are, in
fact, due to their higher prior achievement and earlier ambitions. It is
evident that plans to go to higher education are not formed in senior cycle
alone but are shaped by earlier experiences. Students who had degree-level
educational aspirations in third year are more likely than others
to still intend to go on to college. Conversely, students who reported
negative interaction with their teachers in third year are less likely to
plan to go to higher education, even controlling for their grades. The
gender gap is reduced somewhat in model 3, reflecting the higher aspirations
and grades among females, but female students are still 1.7 times
more likely than males with similar characteristics to have such plans.
Much of the effect of social class is mediated by Junior Certificate performance
and school experiences; in other words, those from professional
backgrounds are more likely to plan to go to college because they
achieved higher grades, had more positive relations with teachers and
held high aspirations from an early stage. However, the social mix of the
school has a significant influence, with students attending schools with a
concentration of working-class students less likely to plan to go to college,
all else being equal.