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Assessing the economic impacts of nature based tourism in Scotland

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<strong>Scotland</strong>’s canals: <strong>the</strong> <strong>economic</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> Millennium L<strong>in</strong>k & Highland canals<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment<br />

Contractor: Roger Tym and Partners<br />

Client: British Waterways and Scottish Enterprise<br />

Published: 2009<br />

Study Objectives:<br />

• To identify <strong>the</strong> <strong>economic</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> canal network <strong>of</strong> <strong>Scotland</strong>.<br />

Methodology:<br />

• An assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>economic</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> generated by <strong>the</strong> reopen<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Lowland Canals (widely known as <strong>the</strong> Millennium L<strong>in</strong>k) and subsequent<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment;<br />

• An exam<strong>in</strong>ation <strong>of</strong> <strong>economic</strong> activity <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> vic<strong>in</strong>ity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caledonian and Cr<strong>in</strong>an<br />

Canals;<br />

• A broad assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> canal network’s contribution to <strong>the</strong> Scottish<br />

Government’s National Outcomes and Strategic Objectives; and<br />

• An analysis <strong>of</strong> house price change along <strong>the</strong> Canal network.<br />

The Millennium L<strong>in</strong>k<br />

The study used a standard ratio <strong>of</strong> £25,000 visitor spend to 1 FTE generated from <strong>the</strong><br />

Scottish Tourism Multiplier Study 1992, updated to 1996 prices. The rationale for<br />

us<strong>in</strong>g 1996 prices appears to have been to facilitate comparisons with projections<br />

made before <strong>the</strong> work on <strong>the</strong> L<strong>in</strong>k was undertaken.<br />

A forecast <strong>of</strong> <strong>economic</strong> outputs to 2015 was prepared <strong>based</strong> on development<br />

applications and related discussions. These were aggregated by Local Authority and<br />

<strong>the</strong>re is no reference date given for values.<br />

There is no mention <strong>of</strong> what this projected figure is <strong>based</strong> upon and what multiplier is<br />

used for <strong>the</strong> FTE’s<br />

Table 32 - The Millennium L<strong>in</strong>k: <strong>economic</strong> outputs<br />

Output<br />

Achieved (April<br />

1999 – Dec 2008)<br />

Orig<strong>in</strong>al target<br />

(1999)<br />

Projected f<strong>in</strong>al<br />

Outputs (2015)<br />

Investment £322 million £100 million £1.8 billion<br />

Employment 3,017 FTE 3,420 FTE 12,702FTE<br />

Employment<br />

(tourist/visitor<br />

related)<br />

1,835 FTE<br />

There were 18.6 million towpath visits <strong>in</strong> 2008 (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g approximately 12.4 million<br />

visits which can reasonably be attributed to <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> re-open<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Millennium<br />

L<strong>in</strong>k and associated towpaths). These figures have to be viewed very critically as <strong>the</strong>y<br />

are taken from a very dispersed number <strong>of</strong> locations with a wide variety <strong>of</strong> local<br />

count<strong>in</strong>g issues<br />

62

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