Antropomotoryka nr 55.indb - Akademia Wychowania Fizycznego w ...

Probabilistic prognosis in sport kinetics
and right hand, respectively. After stimulus presentation,
the examinee should touch the left SS with left MS
or the right SS with right MS.
In the third part of experiment the examinee had
one MS in one hand, whereas the SS were placed to the
left and to the right of him/her at the same distance.
The switches arrangement and average reaction
times in particular parts of experiment 5 are shown in
Figure 5. It is to be emphasized that in several cases
the discrepancy between measurements in the third
part of experiment exceeded 400 ms.
The results of all the described experiments show
how important role in speed and economy of motor
reactions falls to probabilistic prognosis and the prepreparing
of musculature – the arrangement to future
actions – which results of it [6].
3. Discussion
A sensorimotor performance, even the most primitive
reflex, is always directed towards future [7, 8], which
includes considerable amount of uncertainty. To overcome
it, it is necessary to use the probabilistic prognosis
to build an appropriate and realizable model of
desired future. In the process of anticipation, a human
adopts intelligence, intuition and instinct.
Intelligence enables construction of successful
action. It needs both knowledge of full information necessary
to solve the task and of all rules of information
processing. Unfortunately, an individual very rarely possesses
such a complete knowledge. So it is necessary
to use intuition to guess the lacking information. The
directions of searching for such lacking information,
concerning both intelligence and intuition, are determined
by instinct [9]. Accordingly, intelligence might
be compared to mathematical interpolation, intuition –
to mathematical extrapolation, and instinct determines
both the ways of task solving (intelligence) and/or lacking
information searching (intuition), respectively.
The intelligence, intuition and instinct determine the
procedure of processed information, but not its modality.
In the Bernstein’s system of information processing
[10, 11, 12, 13], which might be termed “Bernstein’s
ladder” [14], there are five information processing
levels. Each of them has its own code of information
processing (modality), which determine depth and
speed of information processing. In common language,
A-level is responsible for “feeling-in-hand”, B-level – for
movements harmony, C-level – for “measure-by-eye”,
D-level – for common reason, and E-level – for fantasy.
The lower level, the quicker processing, but at the same
time less thorough. Accordingly, intelligence, intuition
and instinct may function at e.g. D-level (verbal code) or
at C-level (visual code). So, different is the intelligence
modality of a mathematician (E and D levels), and the
intelligence of a hunter in Alaska (C level). They have
to process information with various speeds and depths,
so various code modalities are for them of crucial significance.
The teleceptors, specific to C-level, enabled developing
some time consciousness. Its symptom is e.g.
“time-to-contact” phenomenon [15, 16] or timing [17].
The time consciousness makes a basis for probabilistic
prognosis, which enables the specific division of sport
disciplines into three categories:
1. Track and field sports (runs, jumps, throws). The environment
is highly predictable, importance of energetic
factor as compared to mental ones is high,
so importance of probabilistic prognosis is relatively
low.
2. Sport games, combat sports (soccer, fencing, sailing,
basketball, volleyball etc.). The environment is
not predictable, importance of energetic and mental
factors is at similar level. Fully reactive actions
(without prediction) do not guarantee success, so
the function of probabilistic prognosis and energetic
factors are equally high.
3. Intellectual sports (chess, bridge) – importance of
probabilistic prognosis crucial, importance of energetic
factors negligible.
The probabilistic prognosis may concern temporal,
spatial or both the aspects of situation. Extreme temporal
conditions are observed in boxing. For instance, left
jab of Muhammad Ali was about 40 ms. To defend himself,
his opponent would have to recognize the starting
hit, to take decision about counteraction and to perform
it in merely 40 ms. All these processes require at least
200 ms [15], so effective sensorimotor response
would be obviously impossible. Accordingly, the only
possibility to “survive” in such situation is the accurate
probabilistic prognosis, which shifts the moment of reaction
initiation before the left jab starts and enabled
the response completing before the Ali’s left jab lands
on his opponent’s jaw.
Another example is the ski jump. During the in-run
an athlete attains the speed of over 25 m/s. So, if the
length of optimal zone for leap is, say, 0.5 m, then the
jumper has to his disposal merely 0.02 s for taking-off.
Without proper prediction it would be impossible, though
in such a case the scope of uncertainty is limited.
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