Cost benefit analysis of peri-urban land use policy - Plurel

Table 7: Change in area – BAU 2025 compared to BAU 2005
Cells in
Cells in 2005 but
Area % of
both 2024 not in Area orig reduced original
Area and 2005 2024 (m2) (m2) area lost
1 755 0 7550000 0 0
2 22 67 890000 670000 75.3
3 846 2 8480000 20000 0.2
4 708 560 12680000 5600000 44.2
5 36 3 390000 30000 7.7
6 68 0 680000 0 0
7 232 0 2320000 0
Source: Manual count of Moland output
0.0
Table 8 shows the estimations of welfare loss for the BAU 2025 case in terms of amenity.
The impact in terms of lost amenity is then estimated using the elasticity of 0.03 – i.e. a
1% reduction in area leads to a 0.03% reduction in premium. We used an average house
price for Leipzig of €100,000. This led in the case for BAU 2025 of a loss of €1.9million
(with losses per house around open spaces of up to €2,258).
Table 8: Estimates of lost amenity (losses in €) – BAU 2025
Area
% of
original
area lost
% change
in house
price
Average
house
price
Elasticity
Change Number of
wrt size
per house houses Welfare loss
1 0 0.03 0 100,000 0 501 0
2 75.3 0.03 2.26 100,000 2258 501 1131472
3 0.2 0.03 0.01 100,000 7 501 3545
4 44.2 0.03 1.32 100,000 1325 501 663785
5 7.7 0.03 0.23 100,000 231 501 115615
6 0 0.03 0 100,000 0 501 0
7 0.0 0.03 0 100,000 0 501 0
Total 1914418
The losses per scenario are as shown in Table 9. This shows a cost of between €1.15million
and €3.07million dependent on the scenario – and for HyperTech 2025 is likely higher
because of the fragmentation experienced by Area 7.
Table 9: Amenity losses per scenario in Leipzig (€million – 2005 prices)
2015 2025
BAU 1.15 1.91
HyperTech 2.26 3.07
101