Cost benefit analysis of peri-urban land use policy - Plurel

Table 8. Initial Results from Net Present Value of Costs and Benefits as at 2010
Discount
Rate
ENPV
B/C
Ratio
IRR
Evaluation
Period
3.0 % 1,305 million € 1.65/1
3.5 % 1,009 million € 1.51/1 0.05967 (6 %) 2011-2045
4.0 % 749 million € 1.38/1
(35 years)
4.5 % 521 million € 1.27/1
5.0 % 321 million € 1.16/1
Note: Initial CBA results exclude the value of local air pollution
Further to the calculation of cost-benefit indices, there is an additional step that may
influence the final valuation of the impacts of metro investments: sensitivity analysis.
This is mainly used for testing the effects of uncertainty in the value of indicators. A
summary of sensitivity testing is provided in Table 9.
Conclusions
In order to assess the sustainability implications of various urban forms resulting from
differences in planning policies and implementations, the potential urban future of GDA
has been analysed by utilising scenario analysis carried out by the MOLAND Model
examining potential future urban structures and settlement strategies. Three scenarios
were generated from the MOLAND applications, ranging from urban containment and
transport-oriented corridor developments to sprawl. In terms of sustainable urban
development considerations, initial results from CBA show that uncontrolled sprawl in
the baseline scenario is the least desirable one since costs of such development exceeds
the benefits. In contrast, the containment policies -as in the transit-oriented development
and consolidation- could achieve considerable benefits over the baseline scenario by
reducing the negative consequences of unregulated sprawl. The evidence has pointed out
to the difficulties of controlling the land development by applying development
restrictions and zoning codes, particularly in the post-1990 period when there is
significant shift in the economic climate and associated changes in the socio-economic
structure of the Dublin Area. In this case, the government has been hardly successful in
enforcing effective land use controls following 1990s where undeveloped land is easily
accessible to urban areas.
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