Cost benefit analysis of peri-urban land use policy - Plurel

Discussion
In this report, we have summarised the evidence for GDP change, carbon storage and
open space in the case of Leipzig. We have applied monetary values as appropriate from
the literature. Some broad conclusions can be drawn:
1. The methods used in M3 case studies affects the comparability of results. The
GDP assumptions made in building scenarios were not necessarily compatible
with the M1 scenarios. Hence here we present the most consistent evidence
possible. This shows the following:
a. Under the “BAU” scenarios growth is consistently lower than estimates
from either NEMESIS based outputs for chosen scenarios or scenarios
developed in case studies. This may be suggestive of an optimism over
economic growth in the PLUREL scenarios.
b. For Leipzig, the Eco-Environmental scenario is the most extreme,
outstripping even the most optimistic growth scenario based on
NEMESIS for the same region.
2. For carbon storage, in the case of Leipzig variation across scenarios is not that
significant in terms of avoided social costs of carbon. It is important to note that
the variation in the social cost of carbon outstrips the change in carbon retention
of soils.
3. For open space, in the case of Leipzig costs of between €1.15million and
€3.07million can be identified dependent on the scenario. These estimates are
quite uncertain and are based on a number of simplifying assumptions – notably
equal distribution of population. If housing is more dispersed around the open
areas than the average in Leipzig, then these values may decline. Demographic
change has also not been reflected in these estimates (e.g. decline in household
size).
To summarise, the economic implications of changes in land use in the PLUREL
scenarios range from changes in GDP and changes in the social costs of carbon to changes
in house prices arising from smaller open spaces. The overall changes in GDP in all cases
outstrip losses in terms of amenity values of open spaces, though it should be noted that a
number of other uses of open space have not been valued.
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