Cost benefit analysis of peri-urban land use policy - Plurel

Table 9. Summary of Sensitivity Testing
Factors/ Sensitivity Test
Impacts
subject to
Sensitivity
Testing
Estimation-bias -estimation-bias uplift %
in capital costs
Value of time VTTS -20%
VTTS +20%
Inter-temporal
elasticity to GDP
for work and
non-work trips
Elasticity to
income for work
trips
Metro operation
costs & revenues
Accidents
Social discount
rate
Public service
provision costs
Global air
pollution
EInter-temporal = 0.7 vs.
EInter-temporal = 1.0
EVTTS, Income=0.5 vs.
EVTTS, Income=1.0
World Recovery vs.
Prolonged Recession
projections in metro
operation costs and
revenues
Value of safety /3
Value of safety×3
World recovery vs.
prolonged recession
projections in accident
costs growth rates
3%, 3.5% , 4.5%, 5%
compared to 4%
High growth vs. Low
growth projections in
population
World Recovery vs.
Prolonged Recession
projections in public
service provision costs
Year of
Emissio
n
2000
2010
2020
2030
Central
Estimates
Lower
Upper
4
5
6
8
53
65
88
110
Explanation
Original capital cost estimates will be tested to the
capital costs with estimation-bias uplifts
Uncertainty in National Value of Travel Time Savings
(VTTS): Appraisal results from national appraisal
guidelines will be sensitivity tested to VTTS values +/-
20 % of those national values
Treatment of VTTS over time: Inter-temporal elasticity
to GDP per capita growth of 0.7 will be sensitivity
tested to elasticity to GDP per capita growth of 1.0 for
both work and non-work trips.
Treatment of VTTS based on income variations: A
cross-sectional elasticity to income of 0.5 for passenger
work trips will be sensitivity tested to the crosssectional
elasticity to income of 1.0.
Metro operation costs and revenues computed for
world recovery scenario inflation projections will be
tested to the costs and revenues with prolonged
recession scenario inflation projections
Appraisal results will be sensitivity tested by using v/3
as low and v*3 as high sensitivity
Accident costs computed for world recovery scenario
(GNP/per worker projections) will be tested to the
costs with prolonged recession scenario projections
Appraisal results from various discount rates will be
tested to those computed by applying the base discount
rate of 4%.
Public service provision costs computed for high
growth scenario population projections will be tested to
the costs with low growth scenario population
projections
Public service provision costs computed for world
recovery scenario inflation projections will be tested to
the costs with prolonged recession scenario inflation
projections
Uncertainty in costs of global carbon emissions:
Shadow values of carbon will be sensitivity tested with
lower and upper estimates for each corresponding year
(the number are given in 2000 prices, €/tonne of
carbon dioxide)
86