publication

insights
last year. Strategic new openings of stores should increase Signal Update
growth – the company plans to raise the current number of
You will find an article regarding these two trading ideas on
373 stores to 1000 in the next few years.
1st and 3rd April on www.tradersonline-mag.com. We will
After the publication of the previously mentioned
work on the entry points and the profit targets.
quarterly earnings at the beginning of this year, the
stock opened with a down-gap which had already
closed by the beginning of February. The stock is a buy
at this level. You can expect that the support, which The years 2011 and 2012 were characterised by
is shown by the blue line in Figure 1 will be defended a consolidation in the Australian dollar and by a
successfully.
correction in the year 2013. The new government of
The stock can be bought immediately on the first Australia may be the reason why the year 2014 could be
trading day of April. You could have achieved an average the year of strength for the Australian dollar. The prime
profit of eight per cent in the past 15 years if you would minister of Australia has stopped all initiatives for the
have held the stock until the 7th of May. The hit rate was introduction of renewable energies and the limitation of
93 per cent. Only in one year, 2011, there was a loss of two CO 2 -emissions. This might be not very environmentally
dollars, which is seven per cent. The stop-loss should be correct, but it will make the Australian economy more
placed six per cent below the entry or below the support competitive in the short term. The reasons are lower
line, currently at 51 USD.
production and energy costs.
Often the break in a trend attracts new buyers. The all Also the current strength of gold could lead to an
time high of about 66 USD would be the possible target. increase. The Australian dollar shows a correlation with
You would achieve a profit of nearly 25 per cent if the gold of 0.93. The value one would mean that there was a
stock reaches this target if you enter at 52 USD.
100-per-cent synchronism in the past year.
Both introduced ideas can be traded with options as
Trading Idea AUD/USD Future
well. The duration of bought calls should be about two
The AUD/USD-future June 2013 should be traded long again weeks longer than the recommended seasonal duration.
– as we already did in September 2013. The ideal entry date If you are the writer, the duration may be shorter if the
is the 3rd April with a holding period until the end of April. premium is OK. The basis of the written option should be
The future increased 80 per cent of the time in the past clearly below the stop-loss. «
15 years. The result was an average
profit of 159 ticks or 1590 USD based
on a value of 1000 USD per contract B2) Trading Idea AUD/USD Future
– sometimes even more. The margin
for one futures-contract is 2013 USD.
A stop-loss could be placed 110 ticks
below entry.
The green line in Figure 2
shows the time of the entry with a
holding period to the red bar. The
downtrend started in April 2013 at
1.04 is still valid; the resistance at
0.904 was tested two times since
the beginning of the year and it is
still intact. It would be ideal if the
price of the future would be above
the blue downtrend line at the time
of the entry. The potential based As early as September 2013 the AUD/USD Future could have been traded on the long side with an average
profit of more than 150 Ticks.
on technical analysis would be up
Source: www.lp-software.de
to 0.96.
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