Download PDF (2.5MB) - Anchor Environmental

7. FUTURE POTENTIAL OF THE INDUSTRY
There is no rigorous way of quantifying future potential of an industry. Assumptions have to be made
on the basis of the factors perceived to be important to the success of businesses in the industry.
The magnitude and future changes of these factors themselves often have to be estimated based on
expert opinion. This is certainly the case with boat-based whale watching. Future potential can be
assessed by examining the natural resources that contribute to the attractiveness of the service
offered, current occupancy levels and surplus capacity (taking cognisance of the influence of different
business characteristics and unrelated reasons for failure), the pre-existing tourist market and
accessibility and the constraints such as sea and launching conditions. We take these factors into
consideration in estimating the potential number of permits required in each area in order to maximise
industry potential. Note, however, that although capacity for expansion can be roughly estimated for
the different areas, this capacity will be strongly influenced upward by marketing, and will be restricted
by sustainability issues.
7.1 Past growth of the industry
Logbook data suggest that there has been considerable growth in the boat-based whale watching
industry over the past six years (Figure 7.1). Following initial growth of nearly 400% from 1999 to
2000, the numbers of passengers grew by 101%, 30% and 35% per year before levelling off with zero
growth from 2003 to 2004. The boat-based whale watching industry caters primarily to foreign
tourists, with a total of 86% of all clients being foreign. Thus growth in this industry will also have
been strongly influenced by international trends and exchange rates. Growth continued in 2001
despite the global dip in tourism following the September 11 attacks, and in 2002, possibly due to the
subsequent weakening of the rand. There was little change between numbers in 2003 and 2004,
however, reflecting the Rand’s regaining strength. Indeed some operators reported increasing price
resistance by customers, suggesting that prices had reached their ceiling in terms of tourists’
willingness to pay.
Number of passengers
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
All operators
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 7.1. Estimated total number of passengers on permitted boats from 1999 to 2004 (including all reported
trips)
These trends echo those for the tourism industry in general throughout the southern Africa region,
except that growth rates within this particular industry have been much steeper than overall growth
rates. This can largely be attributed to the newness of the industry. Very few permit holders were
operational in 1999 (data from 4 operators), but between 13 and 15 operators were reporting for the
period 2000 – 2004. Growth has not been even, however, with considerable variation between areas
(Figure 7.2). The steadiest growth has been experienced in the Agulhas region, even into 2004.
59