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7. FUTURE POTENTIAL OF THE INDUSTRY There is no rigorous way of quantifying future potential of an industry. Assumptions have to be made on the basis of the factors perceived to be important to the success of businesses in the industry. The magnitude and future changes of these factors themselves often have to be estimated based on expert opinion. This is certainly the case with boat-based whale watching. Future potential can be assessed by examining the natural resources that contribute to the attractiveness of the service offered, current occupancy levels and surplus capacity (taking cognisance of the influence of different business characteristics and unrelated reasons for failure), the pre-existing tourist market and accessibility and the constraints such as sea and launching conditions. We take these factors into consideration in estimating the potential number of permits required in each area in order to maximise industry potential. Note, however, that although capacity for expansion can be roughly estimated for the different areas, this capacity will be strongly influenced upward by marketing, and will be restricted by sustainability issues. 7.1 Past growth of the industry Logbook data suggest that there has been considerable growth in the boat-based whale watching industry over the past six years (Figure 7.1). Following initial growth of nearly 400% from 1999 to 2000, the numbers of passengers grew by 101%, 30% and 35% per year before levelling off with zero growth from 2003 to 2004. The boat-based whale watching industry caters primarily to foreign tourists, with a total of 86% of all clients being foreign. Thus growth in this industry will also have been strongly influenced by international trends and exchange rates. Growth continued in 2001 despite the global dip in tourism following the September 11 attacks, and in 2002, possibly due to the subsequent weakening of the rand. There was little change between numbers in 2003 and 2004, however, reflecting the Rand’s regaining strength. Indeed some operators reported increasing price resistance by customers, suggesting that prices had reached their ceiling in terms of tourists’ willingness to pay. Number of passengers 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 All operators 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Figure 7.1. Estimated total number of passengers on permitted boats from 1999 to 2004 (including all reported trips) These trends echo those for the tourism industry in general throughout the southern Africa region, except that growth rates within this particular industry have been much steeper than overall growth rates. This can largely be attributed to the newness of the industry. Very few permit holders were operational in 1999 (data from 4 operators), but between 13 and 15 operators were reporting for the period 2000 – 2004. Growth has not been even, however, with considerable variation between areas (Figure 7.2). The steadiest growth has been experienced in the Agulhas region, even into 2004. 59
Number of passengers 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 West Coast Cape Metro Agulhas Garden Route Sunshine coast (PE) Hibiscus (Shelly) Zululand (RB) Maputaland (St Lucia) Figure 7.2. Changes in numbers of passengers recorded from 1999 to 2004 for different regions 7.2 Current capacity and demand The currently permitted boats have an estimated total capacity for about 90 000 tourists per year, based on interview data on season length, sea conditions and trips per day, and our assumption that one could achieve about two-thirds of the maximum trips per seagoing day on average, given changes in weather or lack of whale presence (Table 7.1). About 32 000 passengers were recorded during the last season in total (including on non-whale watching trips in some cases), amounting to at least 34% of existing capacity. Occupancy levels vary considerably from region to region, being highest on the Agulhas, Garden Route and Maputaland coasts (Table 7.1). If all available permits were occupied, and boat capacity approximated the estimated optima, then it is estimated that the industry capacity could be increased by 66% (Table 7.1). This does not include potential additional capacity in the form of additional permits, addressed below. Table 7.1. Summary of the existing capacity of permitted boats for boat-based whale watching tourism, the reported number of passengers and estimated overall ‘occupancy’ rates, plus the potential capacity under the available number of permits. Existing berths 1 Potential berths 2 Main season length % fairweather days Est. existing Capacity 3 Est passengers % occ Est max capacity West Coast 12 60 150 53% 1 267 56 4% 5 491 Cape Metro 69 100 150 74% 13 058 1 824 14% 17 414 Agulhas 98 122 180 62% 24 761 13 606 55% 24 761 Garden Route 90 140 180 76% 36 102 12 174 34% 36 102 Sunshine 12 32 150 72% 2 566 178 7% 4 277 Border-Kei 30 150 65% 3 861 Wild Coast 36 150 65% 4 633 Hibiscus 10 12 180 95% 5 643 1 076 19% 5 643 Durban 30 180 95% 16 929 Zululand 30 180 95% 16 929 Maputaland 11 24 180 95% 6 207 3 116 50% 12 979 Total 324 616 89 604 32 030 149 019 1 Excluding new permit holders that have not operated yet 2 For areas with no operators, boat capacity was assumed to be 30 where harbour facilities existed, else 12. 3 Boat capacity x 0.66*max trips/day x fair-weather days of individual operators 60
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BOAT-BASED WHALE WATCHING IN SOUTH
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owners, who felt that a smaller, fa
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION..
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1. INTRODUCTION The whale watching
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the main whale watching season. All
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3. WHALE WATCHING: AN INTERNATIONAL
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location. Most cetaceans spend the
Page 18 and 19: 3.2 South Africa in perspective Boa
Page 20 and 21: Table 3.3 excludes countries where
Page 22 and 23: west coast up to February or March
Page 24 and 25: The designated areas also include a
Page 26 and 27: 5. PERMIT-HOLDER CHARACTERISTICS, S
Page 28 and 29: The majority of permitted operators
Page 30 and 31: Two very large boats excluded, a ty
Page 32 and 33: November. This is probably due to a
Page 34 and 35: holder, with a total of just over 3
Page 36 and 37: Based on rack rates and the estimat
Page 38 and 39: 5.12 What determines success Based
Page 40 and 41: impact along the Garden Route, anot
Page 42 and 43: 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20
Page 44 and 45: 6.2 Western Cape The Western Cape P
Page 46 and 47: Equipment and infrastructure The fu
Page 48 and 49: around 30 to 35 passengers were per
Page 50 and 51: advertising material which offered
Page 52 and 53: generally variable in their length,
Page 54 and 55: Non-permitted activity One dedicate
Page 56 and 57: Equipment, trip characteristics and
Page 58 and 59: 6.4 KwaZulu-Natal KwaZulu-Natal cur
Page 60 and 61: visitors can be accommodated before
Page 62 and 63: Run on its way past Durban. Trips w
Page 64 and 65: Operators in Area 25 also offered d
Page 66 and 67: 6.5 Summary of legal and illegal ac
Page 70 and 71: Overall demand is heavily influence
Page 72 and 73: The most important enabling criteri
Page 74 and 75: The Cape Metro area is a major tour
Page 76 and 77: focused on harbour trips and until
Page 78 and 79: Wetland Park, Pondoland, the Greate
Page 80 and 81: 8.3 The permit system, conditions a
Page 82 and 83: Monitoring will also be vital for e
Page 84 and 85: 15. Data collected by operators and
Page 86 and 87: Woods-Ballard, A.J., Parsons, E.C.M
Page 88 and 89: 11. APPENDIX 2. SUMMARY OF COMMERCI
Page 90 and 91: used for whale watching must be acc
Page 92 and 93: Both the National and state governm
Page 94 and 95: effort to be controlled through res
Page 96 and 97: not is broached several times each
Page 98 and 99: 11.5 South America 11.5.1 Ecuador T
Page 100 and 101: The Dominican Republic has strict c
Page 102 and 103: 12. APPENDIX 3: NOTIFICATION OF PER
Page 104 and 105: 4. Applicants must be willing to si
Page 106 and 107: SIMONSTOWN AREA Cape Point Lighthou
Page 108 and 109: PLETTENBERG BAY AREA The Western Bo
Page 110 and 111: (iii) the extent to which the appli
Page 112 and 113: Table I. Rating of the whale resour
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