MCDA Final Report Malawi - Standards and Trade Development ...

To explore the impact of changing the weights attached to the ten decision criteria, an alternative equal
weights model was estimated. This model abandons the weights derived in the stakeholder workshop
and assumes all criteria are weighted equally. The results of this model (Figure 30) do not differ
appreciably from those of the baseline model, in that the same capacity-building options are ranked as
the top five priorities, except that virus indexing capacity for planting materials and compliance with SPS
requirements for chilli sauce exports, which ranked second and third respectively in the baseline model,
swap positions in the equal weights model. One major difference between the baseline and equal
weights models, however, is that some options switch from having positive to having negative net flows.
These include pesticide controls for pulses, compliance with hygiene requirements for milk exports, and
pesticide controls for tobacco. These results suggest that the derived priorities are relatively robust to
changes in the decision weights.
Figure 30. Net flows for equal weights model
To further explore the sensitivity of the prioritisation of SPS capacity-building options to changes in the
decision weights, a cost/difficulty of implementation and trade model was estimated; this assumes that
the only criteria driving the ranking of options is costs (up-front investment and on-going costs),
difficulty of implementation and the impact on trade (absolute change in value of exports and trade
diversification). In this model, all five decision criteria are weighted equally. The prioritisation of
options presented by this model is somewhat different (Figure 31). Now, compliance with SPS
requirements for chilli sauce exports comes first and post-harvest treatment for mangoes is ranked
seventh. However, pesticide controls for tea, virus indexing capacity for planting material, and aflatoxin
controls in groundnuts remain in the top five. Other options that show positive net flows include
compliance with SPS controls for honey exports, mycotoxin testing capacity, and animal health controls
for ornamental fish exports. Conversely, seed inspection and certification capacity which had a positive
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